#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Tonight at 21:30, that data window looks a bit intense.

US November CPI Year-over-Year, Core CPI Year-over-Year, and initial jobless claims for the week all came out together. This combination alone ensures that the market won't stay calm. The key point is—who can control the rhythm.

The CPI Year-over-Year is expected at 3.1%, and honestly, this number isn't low. It indicates that inflation hasn't truly entered a safe zone; rather, it's more like it’s stuck at a high level. If the data exceeds expectations, the market's optimistic hopes for rate cuts will be quickly reassessed, with US Treasury yields rebounding, the dollar strengthening, and risk assets facing short-term pressure. Conversely, if the data is below expectations, bulls might seize the opportunity to push higher, but this kind of rise is more driven by temporary emotional impulses, and its sustainability remains uncertain.

The Core CPI is expected at 3.0%—this is what the Federal Reserve is really paying attention to. If core inflation remains stubborn, even if the overall CPI shows some decline, the entire monetary policy tone won't change. In other words, without easing on the core side, the market won't dare to truly go long. This is especially critical.

Initial jobless claims are expected at 225,000, previous value was 236,000. If the data continues to decline, it indicates the labor market remains tight, which is actually bad news for inflation, further reinforcing the logic that "high interest rates need to be maintained longer." But if initial claims rise significantly, it could signal to the market that "the economy is starting to cool."

Overall, tonight's data set is more like a multiple-choice question about direction rather than the start of a trend.

Volatility will definitely be fierce, but be wary of two patterns: one is a quick rally followed by a sharp drop, or vice versa—a shakeout; the other is the market using data to stir emotions, but the overall trend structure hasn't fundamentally changed.

The most dangerous thing when trading at this critical point is to go all-in prematurely. A reliable approach is simple—wait for the data to be released, observe whether the initial market reaction is immediately overturned, and then follow up.

Remember this: data controls volatility, structure determines direction. Understanding this point makes tonight's market meaningful; if not, it’s just a night of being taught a lesson by the market.