Will Gold Break Through $5,000? Here's What the Numbers Say

The gold market is entering a fascinating turning point. Deutsche Bank’s latest analysis, presented by analyst Michael Hsueh, suggests we’re not far from witnessing gold prices test the $5,000 per ounce barrier—potentially as early as 2026, with a near-certain breakthrough expected by 2027.

The Aggressive Price Targets Are Now Official

Hsueh recently revised his 2026 gold price forecast upward to $4,450 per ounce, a significant jump from the previous $4,000 estimate. For 2027, his target sits at $5,150 per ounce. These aren’t speculative musings; they’re grounded in concrete market mechanics that are unfolding in real time.

What’s particularly striking is that gold has already demonstrated resilience despite a 10% pullback from its October highs. The recovery of half this lost ground suggests underlying demand remains robust, even at elevated price levels.

The Volatility Story No One’s Talking About

Price swings in 2025 have hit their highest level since 1980—a fact that often gets overlooked in the gold narrative. Yet Hsueh’s observation cuts deeper: “gold is breaking historical patterns.” This isn’t just noise; it signals that traditional macroeconomic drivers—inflation concerns, currency weakness, and mounting global debt—are working overtime to support gold’s ascent.

Here’s the kicker: the strong gold performance cannot be attributed solely to U.S. dollar depreciation. This tells us something profound about global demand dynamics that transcends currency movements alone.

Central Banks Remain the True Believers

The third quarter saw central banks purchase 220 tons of gold, marking the third-highest quarterly total on record. Even more telling? This volume came despite already-elevated prices, crushing any narrative about price sensitivity dampening demand.

One central bank official’s comment sums it up: gold is the ultimate insurance policy against extreme tail-risk scenarios. This “official” and unwavering demand from global monetary authorities will likely continue fueling upside pressure through 2026 and beyond.

ETF Flows Signal Shifting Sentiment

After four consecutive years of outflows, gold ETFs swung to net inflows in 2025—a meaningful reversal. Current buying and selling patterns suggest the recent profit-taking wave may be losing momentum, with the $3,900 support level appearing durable.

The relationship between price movement and fund flows is causal: direction determines capital allocation. Historically, January and February are the most active periods for gold seasonality, with data spanning the past 20-30 years consistently showing positive month-on-month performance.

Supply Tells the Rest of the Story

Global mined gold production for 2025 is estimated at 3,693 tons based on nine-month data. Looking ahead, 2026 production is projected at just 3,715 tons—barely any increase despite elevated prices.

This is the crucial insight: supply simply cannot respond meaningfully to demand. When demand structurally exceeds supply and central banks continue accumulating, the math points toward one direction. The stage is set for gold to test and breach that $5,000 psychological level sooner rather than later.