Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US November CPI will be announced, and the market is holding its breath.

The core expectation is set—year-over-year 3.1%, slightly higher than the previous 3.0%. Due to the government shutdown, the month-over-month data is absent this time, which already hints at potential data bias. So, be mentally prepared—when this data is released, market volatility will likely be amplified.

From the gold price trend, there are three possible scenarios:

**Most likely scenario**: CPI YoY ≥ 3.1%. This indicates that inflation has not eased as expected and may even be heating up. What will be the result? The Fed rate cut expectations will immediately cool down, US Treasury and dollar prices will rise in tandem, and gold will undoubtedly break below 4300, possibly heading straight for 4270. This is the most consensus direction in the market.

**Second probability scenario**: CPI YoY hovers between 3.0% and 3.1%. This reveals persistent inflation, and long positions expecting rate cuts will start to take profits. Gold is likely to initially rise to around 4345, then turn downward, entering a correction and decline phase.

**Low probability rebound**: CPI YoY < 3.0%. Expectations for rate cuts will be reignited, and gold may attempt to test 4380. But honestly, due to inherent data flaws, this rally is unlikely to last long.

Trading advice is straightforward: wait and see before the CPI release; avoid early bets. Once the data confirms a bearish signal, go short immediately. If gold really breaks below 4300, it’s a good time to add positions. The most important thing during this process is to watch out for false breakouts—don’t get fooled by fake signals.