#BTC The 2026 crypto market will experience a period of initial decline followed by a rally, with an overall bullish trend✅

In the first half of the year, there will be fluctuations and a bottoming process; in the second half, positive catalysts will be concentrated and realized. It won't be a crazy bull run, but structural opportunities far outweigh risks.

✅Core positive factors (3 major certainties)

1. Post-halving residual effects: The 12-18 month bonus window following the 2024 Bitcoin halving covers 2026. Institutional spot ETFs (holding over $100 billion) are locking in positions to support the market. Grayscale/Standard Chartered see BTC at $120,000-$150,000.
2. Macro liquidity easing: The Federal Reserve is highly likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2026. Lower real interest rates benefit risk assets. Additionally, on-chain funds from State Street/BlackRock are entering the market, fully opening institutional capital channels.
3. Regulation + application implementation: The US "Clear Act" is highly likely to pass (defining securities/commodities boundaries). Xiaomi pre-installing Web3 + RWA tokenization accelerates, shifting crypto from speculation to practicality.

⚠️Main negative factors (2 major risks)

1. No strong catalysts in the first half: Barclays explicitly warned of low trading volume in the first half; retail enthusiasm wanes. The on-chain MVRV indicator for BTC shows deep losses among short-term holders, possibly dropping to $40,000-$80,000.
2. Weakening cycle + increased volatility: The four-year halving cycle becomes invalid. Divergence between institutional funds and on-chain selling pressure, fierce battles between bulls and bears, with sharp rises and falls becoming the norm.

💡Key nodes
▸First half: Focus on the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace + SEC regulation implementation. Expect mainly sideways movement, with opportunities to accumulate ETH (staking ETF expectations) and Solana (prioritized by State Street fund).
▸Second half: Regulation implementation + growth in Web3 users + institutional fund inflows, forming the main upward wave for the year.