#现货比特币ETF Bernstein's report hit on my recent core observation - Bitcoin is indeed breaking the old cycle curse. A 30% pullback should have triggered a massive exodus of ETF funds, but the outflow was less than 5%. This data indicates that institutional stickiness is stronger than we imagined.

From a long-term perspective, the logic chain for reaching $200,000 in 2027 is actually very clear: the spot Bitcoin ETF has already pushed institutional participation costs to historically low levels, and the continuous influx of incremental funds has offset retail panic. This structural change is real. However, from a following perspective, I need to remind you of one thing — the grander the long-term narrative, the easier it is to dull our vigilance against phase risks.

Recently, I've been observing the position management of several experts and found that their common point is: they do not pursue filling the entire cycle but instead flexibly switch strategies at different stages. Some began to accumulate positions in batches within the 19000-20000 range, while reserving 30% of their risk capital to cope with a possible second bottom. This "confident yet reserved" rhythm is much smarter than simply going all-in.

If you are optimistic about the long term but concerned about short-term fluctuations, you might consider this approach: choose a trader with a stable style as your main following target, while allocating 10-20% of an aggressive account to follow an expert who is willing to lower costs. When the market really starts to move, you will be able to not miss out on profits and not lose confidence due to pullbacks.

The underlying logic hasn't changed, but the execution method needs to evolve.