Space Review | 2026 Outlook: Narrative Decline, Value Flows Toward Resilient Ecosystems with Genuine Returns

As 2025 comes to an end, the crypto market is once again shrouded in a familiar sense of anxiety: macro liquidity expectations fluctuate unpredictably, on-chain narratives’ heat curves gradually flatten, and market sentiment transitions from mid-year exuberance to rational scrutiny. Assets previously driven by emotion and hot topics are giving way to a more fundamental question—when short-term noise subsides, which values can truly settle and pass through cycles?

Against this backdrop, market discussions have quietly shifted from “Can it go up” to “How to sustain.” Investors and builders are trying to clarify where the industry’s structural support will lie on the road to 2026. Is it relying on macro-level passive uplift, or based on genuine yields created by protocols themselves? Is it about repositioning within the existing landscape, or seeking breakthroughs in new ecological niches?

To explore these questions, SunnPump recently hosted an online roundtable themed “2026 is Coming, Crypto Won’t Lie Flat,” inviting industry observers and builders to focus on the intrinsic logic of year-end market trends, the core elements of DeFi sustainability, and the position and role of TRON in the next phase. This article reviews key insights from the discussion, attempting to outline a rational roadmap toward 2026 from multiple dimensions such as capital structure and ecological evolution.

Narrative Retreats, Utility Rises: The 2026 Cycle Belongs to Mature Ecosystems with Genuine Demand

In the first topic of the roundtable, guests analyzed the fundamental differences between “year-end market” and “heading toward 2026” from perspectives of capital flow, market psychology, and structural shifts. Despite varied expressions, a clear consensus emerged: year-end volatility resembles a short-term game, while the path to 2026 depends on whether a long-term, sustainable value structure can be built.

JaegerC set the tone early, vividly comparing the year-end market to a “single breath” after fluctuations—a “position balancing and testing” at the trading level. He believes the market is shifting from a phase driven by speculation and narratives to a new stage driven by real cash flows and asset architecture. Therefore, the “test” at year-end aims to filter projects qualified for the next long-term framework, with the core of 2026 being a comprehensive overhaul of capital efficiency and value logic.

Anna Tangyuan’s view is more straightforward and sharp. She clearly states that the year-end market addresses the short-term question of “whether prices can rise,” relying on sentiment and impulsiveness; while 2026 tackles the survival question of “whether projects can survive,” depending on business models that can operate stably without subsidies.

When discussions focus on specific ecosystems, TRON becomes an excellent case study. Guests unanimously agree that TRON, with its dominant position in stablecoin settlement and the resulting robust, self-consistent financial ecosystem, has entered the “mature stage of digital financial infrastructure.”

Sweet Sweety provided compelling on-chain data to support TRON’s ecosystem status: nearly 80 billion USDT in on-chain circulation, accounting for half of the global market; daily stablecoin transfers of 20-24 billion USD, forming a continuous value channel; the total locked value (TVL) of the JUST protocol has surpassed 10.4 billion USD, and TRON’s overall TVL approaches 24 billion USD, depicting a picture of deep capital sedimentation and a vibrant, healthy ecosystem.

She emphasized that these figures are not driven by short-term incentives or hype but are naturally propelled by real-world needs such as payments, lending, and staking, forming a resilient and self-reinforcing “value cycle system.” She positions TRON as “the infrastructure backbone supporting global stablecoins and payments,” with its complete ecosystem matrix and deep presence in the stablecoin sector creating an insurmountable barrier.

Anna Tangyuan further reinforced this from the most intuitive user experience perspective. She states that for her and many users, TRON is no longer a “speculative asset” to constantly watch prices but a handy, reliable, low-cost transfer tool—like a “built-in app on your phone.” This “peace of mind” and “no need to discuss” trait is precisely what marks it as a mature infrastructure, explaining its unique stability amid market volatility.

In summary, TRON has long ceased to be a “public chain competitor” needing narrative-driven valuation; it has evolved into a key settlement layer for high-frequency, high-value flows in the global economy. Its thriving DeFi applications, low transaction costs, and ultra-efficient transfers form a business system that does not rely on short-term subsidies but possesses strong endogenous circulation. This aligns with the core logic of “heading toward 2026”: building a value structure capable of passing through cycles and maintaining itself.

The Foundation for Surviving Bull and Bear: Genuine Cash Flows, Stable Demand, and Endogenous Resilience

When the topic shifted to “which DeFi projects can truly pass through cycles,” the discussion moved from market phenomena to deconstructing project fundamentals. Guests unanimously moved away from the obsession with “high yields,” pointing instead to more resilient underlying logic. The practice and development path of TRON ecosystem provide vivid, micro-level examples.

JaegerC systematically outlined the key elements for cycle resilience: genuine cash flows and stable endogenous demand. He believes yields must originate from protocol fees and interest spreads, not short-term speculation. Moreover, protocols should serve essential economic activities like lending and payments. Sweety also shared similar views, emphasizing that projects capable of passing through cycles must be “infrastructure-level,” with strong “self-sustaining” ability. High TVL and risk resistance stem from real fee cash flows and high usage rates, not subsidies.

This logic is clearly validated in core protocols within the TRON ecosystem. Take JustLend DAO as an example: its revenue does not rely solely on lending interest spreads but on a diversified model of real income. Its main income comes from providing liquidity staking services (sTRX) for TRX holders, which accounts for most of its total revenue; traditional lending market interest income provides stable supplementary income.

Crucially, the protocol is designed with a direct value feedback loop: its net income is periodically used to buy back and burn its governance token JST on the open market. This not only makes JST a deflationary asset but also tightly links the protocol’s success (real cash flow) with long-term token holder interests (deflationary support for token value). As long as real demand for staking and lending persists on-chain, the protocol can generate sustainable cash flows and capture value through a deflation mechanism, benefiting ecosystem participants. This exemplifies JaegerC’s emphasis on “high resilience” projects driven by real economic activity with endogenous value return.

Anna Tangyuan used vivid metaphors to simplify the logic. She pointed out that many high-yield projects earn “subsidy money” from project teams; once incentives stop, they vanish. Truly cycle-crossing projects are more like neighborhood convenience stores or highways—no discounts, no hype, but sustained by “long-term usage,” “persistent demand,” and “repeated use.” She stresses that real revenue should come from real usage, not from exaggerated incentives.

For millions of users worldwide, using TRON for USDT transfers is precisely because of its “fast” and “cheap” practical value. This high-frequency, essential “real use” forms the most solid foundation of the ecosystem. DeFi products like SUN.io within the ecosystem also derive long-term appeal from this genuine network utility and asset accumulation, not from short-term subsidies. In November 2025, TRON’s total protocol revenue surpassed $204 million, leading the public chain revenue rankings in a dramatic fashion. This market performance is a direct result of its massive real asset accumulation and continuous network utility, demonstrating the robustness and value-capturing ability of its underlying ecosystem.

In summary, a DeFi ecosystem capable of passing through bull and bear markets must evolve into an organic entity that provides real value, meets stable demand, and possesses endogenous resilience in the digital economy. TRON’s ecosystem, by focusing on and thoroughly connecting the core need of “efficient global value flow,” has completed the leap from a single public chain to a comprehensive financial infrastructure. It has built an integrated system centered on massive stablecoin circulation (real demand and cash flow), high-throughput low-cost public chain (reusable infrastructure), naturally generating rich DeFi scenarios like lending, trading, and staking. In this system, protocol value capture and network utility are tightly linked, forming a resilient, self-sustaining organism with strong internal circulation and cycle resistance. This is not only the structural answer for TRON’s cycle-crossing but also a clear, powerful reference for industry exploration of sustainable development paths.