The four-year cycle comes to an end, and the crypto market begins a ten-year long battle

Written by: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise

Translated by: Luffy, Foresight News

In recent weeks, during meetings with institutional investors, the most common question I was asked is: Does the four-year cycle of Bitcoin still have any reference value?

The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern of Bitcoin showing “three years of growth followed by a year of sharp decline.”

This question is crucial because, according to the logic of the four-year cycle, next year will be a difficult year for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market.

Although I cannot accurately predict the price movements of cryptocurrencies next year, I believe blindly believing that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself is unwise. After all, the four-year cycle is not a divine law carved in stone; its formation is actually driven by three specific factors:

Bitcoin Halving Events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is halved approximately every four years.

Interest Rate Fluctuations: Two spikes in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 have both triggered market corrections in the crypto space.

Market Cycles of Boom and Bust: Years of sharp declines in cryptocurrencies (2014, 2018, 2022) have all occurred immediately after strong bullish years. For example, Bitcoin surged 5530% in 2013, 1349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market frenzy, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when these bubbles burst—such as the crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of FTX in 2022—it directly triggered market crashes that year.

Today, these three major drivers have either significantly weakened or are moving in completely opposite directions compared to previous cycles. The influence of Bitcoin halving is no longer as strong as four years ago; interest rates are likely to decline rather than rise in 2026; and the crypto market in 2025 has not experienced the kind of frantic surge seen in previous cycles.

Meanwhile, more decisive forces—especially the influx of institutional investors and the gradual improvement of regulatory policies—are building momentum toward 2026. In our latest “2026 Market Forecast” report, we predict that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high next year. I still believe this is the most likely outcome.

What will replace the four-year cycle?

If the four-year cycle has indeed come to an end, a reasonable question follows: what new framework should we establish for the crypto market in 2026 and beyond?

The four-year cycle once provided clear guidance for investors. Knowing whether the market is in a recovery phase, a bull market, or a crypto winter helped investors stay resilient during bear markets and remain rational during bull runs.

So, what kind of thinking framework can replace it now?

The answer is: a ten-year endurance battle.

I know, this phrase sounds far less catchy than the four-year cycle. But please hear me out, because I firmly believe this is the essence of the current market.

The so-called endurance battle refers to the long-term contest between two forces: one is a powerful, persistent, and gradually strengthening positive driver; the other is intermittent, aggressive, but ultimately weaker negative shocks.

The positive drivers currently gathering momentum include: accelerated institutional adoption, ongoing regulatory improvements, concerns over fiat currency devaluation, and the real-world application scenarios of stablecoins and asset tokenization.

The goal of these trends is to fundamentally disrupt traditional systems such as capital markets, global payment networks, and the international monetary system. Achieving full maturity will take more than a decade. Early signs of this process are already visible everywhere: billions of dollars flowing into crypto ETFs, crypto-related legislation steadily advancing in Congress, rapid expansion of stablecoins and tokenized markets, and more.

However, progress will inevitably face resistance. Potential negative shocks include macroeconomic shocks, leveraged liquidation waves, and malicious events like hacking, scams, and fund theft. The impact of such negative shocks typically lasts weeks, months, or quarters.

Overall, the long-term influence of positive drivers far exceeds that of negative shocks, but the latter can erupt rapidly and suppress positive momentum in the short term. The market crash on October 10, 2025, is a typical example: a macro shock triggered a massive liquidation of leveraged positions, causing a sharp market decline.

This endurance battle pattern has created a serious divergence in the current crypto market: retail investors are deeply despairing, while many institutional investors remain bullish. The root cause lies in their vastly different time horizons. Retail investors focus on the aftermath of the October liquidation event; institutions are looking at the 2030 scenario where stablecoin assets could surpass $3 trillion.

Both perspectives are reasonable, just based on different time scales.

The significance of the endurance battle for investors

Over the past few months, I have been analyzing the market within the “endurance battle” framework, and this approach has proven to be highly valuable. The endurance battle pattern suggests the market will exhibit the following characteristics:

• Long-term, substantial but not exaggerated returns
• Overall volatility will decrease
• Periodic 20%–40% corrections

This means investors must take every market correction seriously, as they could last quite a long time. But as long as the fundamentals remain strong, they can be confident that prices will eventually rebound.

Looking back, I believe the crypto market officially entered the endurance battle phase when Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved in January 2024. This milestone sparked a wave of institutional investment, and I believe this trend will continue for a full decade. In fact, since the ETF listing, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 93%, with three deep corrections exceeding 20% during this period.

I believe that for a long time to come, the market will maintain this kind of return profile. The endurance battle may not be as thrilling as the previous cycles of rapid surges and crashes, but it signifies a deeper transformation of the crypto industry. When an asset class matures, the era of endurance has arrived.