Should BTC finish the year in the red, we'd be witnessing something pretty rare—a meaningful challenge to the conventional 4-year cycle narrative that's been driving crypto market dynamics for over a decade. The pattern has held up remarkably well historically, making this scenario genuinely noteworthy from a macro perspective.

What makes this particularly intriguing is what could unfold in 2025. If the traditional cycle does break down, it might signal a structural shift in how Bitcoin behaves as an asset class matures. The next 12 months could reshape everything we thought we knew about Bitcoin's seasonality and medium-term momentum patterns.

Either way, we're potentially looking at territory worth paying close attention to.