Recently, there's a phenomenon in the market worth pondering—when everyone is confidently expecting a bear market, Bitcoin instead makes a counter-move.

Historically, bear markets follow this pattern: they have already fallen deeply before anyone notices. Remember when Bitcoin dropped to 15,000? At that time, everyone was bearish, believing it would break below 10,000, but then it reversed. This time is similar: after falling from 126,000 to 80,600, the market collectively called for a drop to 74,000, but Bitcoin rebounded.

What's even more interesting is that this bull market itself has broken the usual pattern—there's no longer a steady upward trend; instead, it's characterized by oscillations higher. According to the old rules, a rebound from 80,600 should take at least 2-3 months to reach the 106,000-118,000 range, but the reality hasn't followed that.

Look, if the bear market pattern also arrives four months early (just like the bull market did), then based on the historical expectation for late October 2026, wouldn't it also arrive early in June? There's another detail—after gold hits a new all-time high, Bitcoin usually hits a new high three months later. But this time? These patterns are starting to fail.

Why is the market stuck now? Many say it's due to insufficient liquidity, but actually, the main players are digesting the MSCI expectations for January 15. Think about when Japan's interest rate hikes landed—uncertainty caused a sell-off, but then it still rose afterward. At this point, Bitcoin might have already priced in this risk in advance; after January 15, the probability is high that it will rise.

To sum up: either the old rules still work, and Bitcoin should continue to rise; or the rules have truly been broken, and this becomes the new market paradigm. But based on the data, both possibilities seem to point in the same direction.