1. Market Overview

Based on the latest daily candlestick data, Ethereum (ETH) currently closes at 2969.95, which is the latest valid market price. The 14-day candlestick data shows that ETH has experienced significant volatility, with price ranges between a high of 3057.78 and a low of 2775.19. Recently, active buying and selling pressures have been intense. In the past 48 hours, hourly data indicates that ETH's price has generally been trending downward with fluctuations, with a recent high of 3009.8 and a low of 2968.17, and prices oscillating narrowly around the 2970 level. Regarding trading volume, daily volume has expanded during some major upward and downward phases, with the largest daily trading volume reaching 372,485 on the 12th, while recent two-day candlesticks show a sharp contraction to 266.44, indicating increased market hesitation. Overall, the current market environment suggests a short-term wait-and-see stance, with volatility converging and trading activity decreasing, reflecting market uncertainty about the future direction. News and analyst opinions both point to a cautious market attitude. Mainstream media reports indicate that funds related to BTC and ETH ETFs have experienced outflows before the holiday, with investor sentiment turning conservative and short-term pressure mounting. Some analysts explicitly state: “ETH outlook: bearish, build position: 2990-3040, stop loss: 3060, take profit: 2960-2930-2900, entry flexible, no need to chase the exact point,” suggesting a cautious bearish view on recent trends and recommending flexible swing trading.

2. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day daily candlestick arrangement, ETH remains in a downward channel overall. After reaching a high of 3057.78 on the 12th, prices have continued to decline, with the 3030-3050 zone becoming a strong resistance area. Recent lows around 2950 have repeatedly found support, but the strength has weakened, with the lowest dropping to 2910.25, and the latest close falling below 2970, indicating that bears are gradually gaining control. The hourly chart further reveals short-term structure: in the past 48 hours, the high was only 3009.8, followed by a gradual decline, stabilizing around the current 2969.95. Each short-term rebound encounters strong resistance around 2980-2995. Although support exists in the 2430-2945 range, it lacks significant volume confirmation. Volume distribution shows that the highest trading activity occurs during initial pullbacks, with volume increasing during declines, but recent prices have fallen sharply while volume has drastically shrunk, indicating low enthusiasm for long positions. Key support and resistance levels based on actual candlestick data are as follows: resistance above is at 2980-2995, with a clear upper resistance zone between 3009-3058; support below is at 2960, 2945, and 2930, 2910. If the price breaks below 2910, further downside potential may expand.

3. News and Policy Analysis
In terms of news, multiple reports focus on ETF fund flows, market sentiment, and structure, reflecting a risk-averse attitude among mainstream funds. Regarding ETH specifically, “ETF Review” states that “Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs ended a week of contraction before the holiday under pressure, with large-scale fund outflows,” directly correlating with a phased decline in the market. Reports also mention that “Whales have increased leveraged short positions on BTC, ETH, and SOL to $169 million,” combined with recent downward price movements and candlestick declines, indicating that large funds are cautious about ETH’s future. Additionally, “Ethereum leads crypto asset inflows in 2025,” which is somewhat positive, but overall market sentiment remains cautious. On the policy front, no new regulations or policies have been implemented in the past 24 hours, one week, or within the past month, indicating external variables are stable, and the market is mainly driven by sentiment. Overall, the news remains neutral to negative, with no effective catalysts, no substantial positive support, and no systemic pressure release.

4. Analyst Opinions
Analyst consensus emphasizes cautious waiting and high-level shorting strategies, with core views summarized as follows, all based on original data:
- “ETH outlook: bearish, build position: 2990-3040, stop loss: 3060, take profit: 2960-2930-2900, entry flexible, no need to chase exact points.”
- “Long positions on ETH can still be maintained, EP: 2878-2842, TP: 2930-2990-3050, SL: 2805.”
- “Entry near 3054-3238 for short positions, stop loss at 3325, take profit at 2890, 2800, 2720, 2630.”
Based on actual candlestick movements, ETH has been oscillating downward over the past three days, repeatedly breaking below the analyst-recommended “take profit” zones, indicating that the “high short—target gradually lowered—flexible trading” strategy aligns with the market trend. Some opinions suggest flexible responses to both bullish and bearish signals, but the main approach remains to defend the short side. The suggested ranges are consistent with actual candlestick fluctuations, with no significant divergence expected.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Recommendations
Based on intra-day and short-term candlestick structures, ETH is in a consolidation phase before further decline. If subsequent drops break below 2930 and 2910, the market may enter a new downward wave, with targets around 2860-2800, and mid-term testing of 2775.19 based on actual lows. If there is an upward rebound, the first resistance is at 2990-3009, requiring volume breakout to re-enter the 3050 range, but given current volume contraction and resistance levels, the probability of a breakout is low. Trading advice: focus on short-term high short positions around 2980-2990, with stop-loss at recent highs or 3009. If prices fall below 2945-2930, consider gradually reducing positions and tracking support levels at 2900 and below. Aggressive traders may consider placing long orders below, but with strict stop-losses to prevent ongoing downside risk. Currently, it is not recommended to hold large long positions; taking profits on rallies and adopting a defensive stance is advisable.

6. Risk Warning
Candlestick data shows that ETH is currently in a volume contraction phase, with volatility significantly increasing and support levels at risk of failure. If the recent low at 2910 is broken, there is a risk of rapid decline and short-term sharp drops. Additionally, recent low trading volumes and main capital being on the sidelines make the market susceptible to further volatility triggered by news. Risk control is essential, with strict adherence to stop-loss rules to prevent extreme market shocks. Investors should be alert to systemic and sentiment risks associated with sharp declines and intense fluctuations. In summary, ETH faces clear short-term technical resistance; it is recommended that investors prioritize disciplined trading, monitor key price levels, and combine analyst guidance with candlestick signals to trade cautiously.