2025-12-31 01:24:49

Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been a bit sluggish—hovering around $88,000 with repeated fluctuations, and it has yet to break through the $90,000 barrier. Honestly, maintaining such stability with low trading volume is already quite good.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released its meeting summary, which is the real event influencing the market. The officials' stance was very clear: the main driver behind rising inflation now is tariff policies. More painfully, they believe that inflation will be difficult to bring down to the 2% target in the short term.

But what’s more worth paying attention to isn’t inflation itself, but the signals coming from the labor market. Hiring efforts are clearly weakening, and companies are controlling costs. This reflects not good news—possibly increased economic uncertainty or companies preparing for worse scenarios. Coupled with structural issues like declining immigration, aging populations, and decreasing participation rates, the labor supply continues to shrink. This indicates that the US economy isn’t as robust as many imagine.

However, Federal Reserve officials remain optimistic about growth through 2026. The key is monetary policy—if inflation continues to decline into 2026, further policy adjustments would make sense. But for now, they’ve decided to hold steady, with most officials preferring to wait for more data. What does this mean? The possibility of a rate cut in January is basically nonexistent, and any real adjustments might not happen until March.

Looking back at Bitcoin’s on-chain data, the turnover rate is significantly lower than on normal trading days. In plain terms, institutions and quantitative funds are on holiday, and participation has noticeably decreased. During such times, price movements more accurately reflect the true sentiments of retail investors rather than large capital players manipulating the market. Although the psychological barrier at $90,000 does create upward pressure, the overall stability of the price is quite good, indicating that market sentiment hasn’t deteriorated.

From the chip distribution perspective (URPD indicator), the overall pattern remains quite healthy. However, it may still take some time to fully establish a new bottom. Interestingly, those investors who were trapped at high levels earlier are now surprisingly calm, with no signs of panic selling—this mindset is precisely what helps keep the price stable.

BTC1,22%

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TradFiRefugee

· 5h ago

88k repeatedly tugging back and forth, it's really exhausting --- The Federal Reserve is holding steady; don't expect anything in January --- Everyone's on holiday now, retail investors are just trying their luck haha --- The labor market is so weak, the US economy isn't as tough as you might think --- Is the chip distribution healthy? Then why aren't the trapped investors panicking yet --- 90k is just a psychological barrier; if it can't be broken through, it's not a big deal --- Tariffs pushing up inflation, who should take responsibility for this --- The turnover rate is plummeting; big institutions are really going all out --- Still need to build a bottom, it's a bit annoying --- Those trapped at high levels are quite calm; their mindset is truly impressive --- Inflation can't be brought down to 2%, let's wait until March --- No big sell-off? Then retail investors are either sleeping or lying flat --- If we only see the bullish outlook in 2026, who would dare to go all in now

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Anon32942

· 5h ago

88,000 cards, it's been so long that I fell asleep... But staying put isn't too bad either, let's wait for the big news from the Federal Reserve in March.

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ContractTearjerker

· 5h ago

Wait, I just want to ask—since institutions are on holiday now, only retail investors are playing in the market, which actually makes the 90,000 level even harder to break through, right? --- Tariff policies are driving up inflation, and the Federal Reserve plans to stay put until March. How does this affect the coin price? Can anyone explain? --- Those who are stuck at high levels are so calm now, not because they are optimistic, but probably because they have already accepted their fate haha. --- The labor market is worsening, and companies are making bad plans in preparation. This is the real problem. Few people in the crypto circle are paying attention to these issues. --- Repeatedly smashing 88,000 but can't reach 90,000. It looks quite uncomfortable, but from another perspective, it’s actually quite stable. --- The Federal Reserve's data-driven policy suggests that we just have to wait. No major moves are expected until the first half of next year. --- What does a healthy chip distribution even mean? Isn't it just about when big funds will re-enter? Right now, everyone is hibernating. --- Inflation can't be brought down to 2% in the short term. This is more painful than whether Bitcoin rises or not. The fundamental economic situation is the root cause.

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mev_me_maybe

· 5h ago

Wait a minute, is the Federal Reserve holding back to save a big move? Is January really out of the question? --- The fluctuation around 88k is indeed a bit annoying, but the low turnover rate indicates that no one is in a rush to sell. --- Haha, with such a strong labor market, the economy isn't as resilient as it seems. Bitcoin has actually become more stable. --- Are losing investors no longer dumping? That really suggests the bottom is set, just waiting for that move in March. --- If inflation can't be brought down to 2%, companies are reducing hiring, and immigration is decreasing... with this combination, is a stable coin price actually a good sign? --- The 90k threshold is indeed a bit tricky, but since institutions are on holiday and leaving, the price hasn't collapsed. That's an interesting logic. --- The Fed's rhetoric seems to be just delaying tactics, anyway, they'll discuss again in March. --- Healthy chip distribution plus calm trapped investors—basically, the market is just waiting for a signal. --- The downward trend in labor supply... the US economy isn't that stable... does that actually bode well for the crypto market?

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Layer2Arbitrageur

· 5h ago

lmao the fed basically telegraphed we're stuck in rate limbo till march, yet people still expect 88k to pump through 90k on holiday liquidity? the math doesn't check out tbh

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ZkSnarker

· 5h ago

ngl the fed just speedran their way into "wait and see" mode while btc's chilling at 88k like it owns the place. institutions ghosting the charts rn is lowkey the most bullish signal ever lmao

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 5h ago

88k fluctuations are not a big deal; the key is still the Federal Reserve's stance. A rate cut in January is basically unlikely. Institutions are on holiday now, and it's mainly retail investors playing. The 90k threshold will be broken sooner or later. The labor market is indeed a bit shaky; the US economy isn't as stable as it seems... Those trapped at high positions are actually the most calm, which is a good sign. The URPD indicator looks okay; we might need to wait a bit longer for a bottom to form.

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