The market is like New Year's fireworks—spectacular from afar, but up close it makes you break out in a sweat.

Today on the trading floor, ETH hovered around 2964 all morning. Compared to yesterday’s spike to 3057 with a long upper shadow, it looks like a drunk buddy, patting his chest and claiming he's sober, then turning around and collapsing on the sofa. A quick reminder: this morning, Grayscale released its 2026 outlook report, stating that "the demand for value storage combined with improved regulation will trigger a new bull market." Sounds good, but reality is harsh—BTC only reached 89,000 before being pushed back down, and ETH is even more direct; before the 3000 level heats up, selling pressure has pushed it below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands.

There’s a detail worth pondering. The day before yesterday, Tether minted 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain, which should be a signal of "incremental funds entering the market." But looking at the trading data, the transaction volume was only 1.21 million, with a net outflow of 280,000—classic "loud slogans, real actions." I recently talked with friends in the quant community, and they revealed that institutional players are now using a strategy of "precise positioning for swing trading." For example, yesterday’s sell-off around 3050 was triggered by an automatic take-profit order from a certain asset management firm—whose cost basis was around 2888 during the bottom, now with nearly 200 points in profit. At this point, not selling would be like waiting for the New Year?

Looking at the technicals: RSI is oscillating in a neutral to weak zone, the J value of KDJ is basically flat, indicating that the short-term decline is probably over. But MACD is still in a death cross, which is like being in a bar where your friend says "One last drink," but the bartender is already starting to wipe the counter—signals are a bit mixed.