Tonight at 9:30 PM, the US September Non-Farm Payrolls report is about to be released. This delayed data is not just an "economic health check," but for the short-term trend of the crypto market, it is almost equivalent to a "judgment."

After being delayed for over a month due to the government shutdown, this report is finally making its debut. As the first core economic indicator released during the shutdown, its uniqueness lies in the fact that the data actually reflects events that happened over a month ago. It's like looking at the road through a rearview mirror—always a step behind.

The market's general expectation is that September added 54,000 jobs, but some institutions are more optimistic, predicting 80,000. However, I believe the real trump card of this report is not in the numbers themselves, but in how it will influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

**Why is this so critical?**

Simply put, the Federal Reserve is watching this data closely. Whether they will cut interest rates in December depends heavily on this employment report. Currently, the market estimates about a 42% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this probability could fluctuate dramatically based on tonight's data.

Another important detail is that the report includes significant revisions to July and August data. Analysis suggests that the annual benchmark revisions could reach 800,000. If the previously strong employment figures are sharply revised downward, the entire market's view of the economy will need a complete overhaul.

**How credible is the data?**

Honestly, non-farm payroll data is no longer just an economic indicator. In August, political factors started to interfere, and there have been numerous controversies surrounding the authenticity of the data. This has added some skepticism among investors regarding the credibility of the data itself. So tonight's release is not only about data publication but also a key trigger for market sentiment.