2025-12-31 02:24:56

A recent chart has caused a stir in the crypto community. Analyst Chiefy shared a "Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Comparison Chart" that has been widely circulated in various chat groups. The chart coldly points out: if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could initiate a more than 50% crash in January, directly targeting $40,000.

Many people started to panic after seeing this chart. But if you look closely, this guy has been drawing from 2012 to now, following the same pattern in every major cycle—sharp rise, about 1400 days of brutal bottoming, then another surge. According to the timeline, we are now on the edge of that bottoming cliff. Think about past drops of over 80%; these fluctuations are really just the appetizer.

Why is this so frightening? Ultimately, it exposes a harsh reality: in the crypto market, full of emotional reactions and information asymmetry, can we really trust the underlying logic of "cycle patterns" and "technical analysis"? Or are we just fooling ourselves?

The key question is: when such "doomsday charts" spread widely, do they become self-fulfilling? Will panic trigger chain liquidations? In the whirlpool of mixed true and false information, subjective predictions flying everywhere, and emotional hype running rampant, what ordinary traders lack most is one thing—objective facts. Without this, any analysis could just be gambling.

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HodlTheDoor

· 6h ago

Honestly, I'm tired of this cycle theory. Every time it's "history repeats itself," but there are plenty of times when it backfires. Drop to 40,000 in January? Fine, then I'll just do the opposite and bet it won't fall. Anyway, it's all gambling. Chiefy's chart can fool retail investors, but institutions have already eaten up the chips. When will it be our turn? The idea of a 1400-day bottom feels like a post hoc rationalization; those who can truly predict early have already made a fortune. Panic spreading can indeed become self-fulfilling, but the question is, who the hell can confirm which time is real? Brothers whose mentality is collapsing, stay calm. If it drops, so be it. Long-term, BTC has never been seen as a loser. Technical analysis is just modern divination. Those who believe in it only profit due to survivor bias. Instead of studying those charts, think about how much drawdown you can truly withstand.

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MevSandwich

· 6h ago

Here's another "Doomsday Chart," this time at $40,000. I have to ask—did Chiefy predict this correctly last time? Honestly, the cycle theory has become tiresome, talking about 1400 days of bottoming out and an 80% drop, sounding like a math problem. But when the moment actually arrives, how many people can hold on? Anyway, I see in the group that those still screaming are mostly chasing the high, the typical retail investors. The key is that once such charts spread, the self-fulfilling prophecy begins. First, panic liquidation, then chain reactions, and finally big players eating the meat while retail investors drink the soup. I’m all too familiar with this routine. To put it simply, it’s still a game of information asymmetry—some harvest through charts, others sell in panic. We’re just guessing in the middle. Instead of believing in cycle patterns, it’s better to consider your own risk tolerance and not get caught up in the hype.

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ContractExplorer

· 6h ago

Here it comes again. New tricks every month in these charts—whoever believes it will lose money. $40,000? I just want to know if Chiefy’s prediction this time is correct. What about the historical records? Hearing about the 1400-day bottoming process so many times, in the end, it’s still the ones following the trend who suffer the most. Cycle patterns are unreliable—markets are just capital games, not textbooks. Really treating panic as food, this community... Repetition of history? Come on, every time they say "this time is different," but it’s still the same old tricks. Instead of looking at charts, it’s better to watch the movements of big funds—that’s the real thing. It’s 2025, and people still trust analysts. Might as well flip a coin. All I know is, the more these charts spread wildly, the faster retail investors die. That’s just how the pattern works. When the liquidation link appears, you’ll know who’s stirring up trouble.

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MetaverseLandlady

· 6h ago

Here's another "Doomsday Chart," this time with $40,000? Haha, it's always the same argument, and what’s the result? My BTC in the wallet is still doing well. Honestly, I've been hearing this cycle theory for five years. Is it accurate? Instead of looking at charts, it’s better to see if you have bullets. Is history repeating? History never repeats, only rhymes. Don’t be scared into collapse. It’s 2025 and you’re still playing the 1400-day routine? The market has already changed, institutions have entered, and retail investors are also increasing. Can this logic still be used? Instead of panicking and predicting, think about your own risk tolerance. If you can afford to lose $40, go ahead and play; if you can’t, going all-in is always wrong. Actually, the most heartbreaking thing isn’t the chart itself, but everyone knows they’re gambling and still insist on dressing it up with "analysis." If this guy’s chart were really so accurate, he’d be financially free by now, and he wouldn’t be using it to scare people in the group. Just think about it. A 50% crash? I lost 80% in 2017—that was a disaster. Is this now a big event? The key is information asymmetry—some use this chart to cut leeks, others use it to bottom-fish and get rich. It all depends on which side you’re on.

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ProofOfNothing

· 6h ago

It's that same four-year cycle theory again. Every time, someone pulls it out to scare people. But what’s the result? History isn’t that simple. A 50% drop to 40,000? I just want to ask if Chiefy is about to publish another book. Charts look nice, but if they could truly predict the market, would we still be trading? We might as well just buy lottery tickets. These days, the scariest thing isn’t a sharp decline, but people seeing all the talk about a crash and then actually panicking and selling off in fear. Honestly, it’s a "self-fulfilling prophecy." The more intense the rumors, the more dangerous it becomes.

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Rekt_Recovery

· 6h ago

ngl chiefy's chart is just copium wrapped in nostalgia... we've all been there, drawing lines that "fit perfectly" until they don't lol

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TheMemefather

· 6h ago

Another cycle theory, I'm tired of hearing it... If it really drops to 40,000, I'll buy the dip; if it's a fake drop, I'll just keep lying low.

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