There is a phenomenon worth reflecting on for everyone in the crypto circle: whenever the market collectively pessimizes, the actual market often strikes back fiercely in the opposite direction.

Early entrants have definitely experienced several complete cycles, but honestly, who dares to definitively say "a bear market is confirmed" right now? No one. The real bottom is only confirmed when BTC drops to around 20,000 or 15,000, at which point everyone collectively says "I knew it all along." Ironically, just as the entire internet turns bearish below 15,000, the price suddenly reverses and pulls up.

This time, the plot feels a bit familiar.

Bitcoin plummeted from 126,000 to 80,600, and the whole market reached a consensus: "This time it's definitely a bear market, with the next support at 74,000." But what happened? Before the public opinion fully fermented, BTC turned around and rebounded. Even more strangely, this rally didn't follow the old script of "banana-style crazy surge"—the upward path has even changed. Will the bear market still obediently follow the old rules?

According to previous cycle theories, a rebound from 80,600 should last at least 2 to 3 months, reaching the 106,000-118,000 range to be considered complete. The current rebound strength is clearly insufficient. This is a bit strange: can we still use bull-bear cycles to predict the market? Or conversely, if the pattern really works, does it imply that Bitcoin still has room for a further rally?

What’s more intriguing is this—the current bull market started a full 4 months earlier than everyone expected. If "early" becomes the new normal, will the bottom of the bear market also be compressed? According to traditional algorithms, the bottom of the bear market should be around October 2026, but if it actually materializes 4 months earlier, the entire rhythm would need to be rewritten.