January's curse or opportunity? A review of Ethereum and Bitcoin's "January Effect" over the past decade

【BlockBeats】At the beginning of each year, many traders ponder the same question: Is January truly an opportunity or a trap for the crypto market?

According to historical data, the answer isn’t so straightforward.

Let’s look at Ethereum’s performance. Over the past 9 years since 2016, Ethereum’s average return in January has been +20.63%, with a median of as high as +31.92%. That sounds quite optimistic, but a closer look at the record shows that over these 9 years, January performance was 5 gains and 4 losses—that is, while the gains are indeed strong when they occur, there are also quite a few losing years. This indicates that January isn’t an absolutely favorable month for Ethereum and instead exhibits significant volatility.

Bitcoin’s situation is relatively milder. From 2013 to the present, over 13 years of data, Bitcoin’s average return in January is +3.81%, with a median of only +0.62%. This figure is much lower than Ethereum’s, implying that Bitcoin’s overall performance in January is more stable, lacking obvious upward momentum. In terms of record, over 13 years, there were 7 gains and 6 losses—winning slightly more often, but without a dominant advantage.

Comparing the two, an interesting phenomenon emerges: Ethereum’s January performance is more extreme—substantial gains but also higher risks; Bitcoin appears more subdued, lacking strong upward energy and not being particularly fierce during downturns. This reflects the different market attributes of the two assets: Bitcoin, as a market barometer and safe-haven asset, exhibits relatively converged volatility; Ethereum, as an ecosystem token, is more influenced by project developments and market sentiment.

So, how should one approach the new year? Data is just a reference; historical patterns are not guarantees. Market conditions are changing, macro factors are shifting, and relying solely on historical averages for betting is obviously not rational. True traders should focus on: What is the current market liquidity? How are institutions and whales moving? Are there any changes in policy expectations? These are more important decision factors than just looking at the historical ledger.