Will the S&P 500 Bull Run Extend into 2026? What the Past 50 Years Tell Us

The Current Market Setup: Three Years and Counting

The S&P 500 has now entered its third consecutive year of significant gains, with back-to-back annual returns exceeding 20%. Looking ahead to 2026, the index appears poised for another advance. However, beneath this impressive performance lies a critical question: how much longer can this momentum sustain?

The driving force behind this run has been unmistakable. Technology stocks, particularly those in the artificial intelligence sector, have dominated returns. The Magnificent Seven — a group of mega-cap tech powerhouses — have delivered double and triple-digit gains over the past three years. Since these companies carry outsized weightings in the S&P 500, their performance essentially sets the index’s direction.

The AI Catalyst: Real Gains or Inflated Expectations?

Amazon and Nvidia exemplify how AI adoption is translating into tangible business results. Amazon’s cloud division, AWS, recently reached an annualized revenue run rate of $132 billion, driven primarily by surging demand for AI infrastructure and services. Nvidia, the world’s leading designer of AI chips, reported fiscal-year revenues of $130 billion as enterprises race to acquire its advanced systems.

Yet this same strength has triggered growing skepticism. With valuations reaching new peaks and multiple record-highs in the index, market observers have increasingly raised concerns about whether AI-related stocks may be pricing in unrealistic growth expectations. The technology sector has experienced notable weakness in early December, with names like Oracle and Broadcom retreating sharply. Simultaneously, investors have rotated capital into economically sensitive and non-tech sectors, suggesting a potential shift in market leadership as 2026 approaches.

What History Reveals: The Long Bull Market Pattern

To address whether the bull market can continue into 2026, examining the historical record provides a decisive framework. Over the past five decades, five other bull markets have reached the longevity of the current one. Each lasted considerably longer than three years:

• October 1974 to November 1980: 6.2 years
• August 1982 to August 1987: 5 years
• December 1987 to March 2000: 12.3 years
• October 2002 to October 2007: 5 years
• March 2009 to February 2020: 11 years

According to analysis from Carson Group’s chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick, the pattern is unambiguous. Bull markets that survive the first two years typically persist for at least five years total. By this standard, the S&P 500’s current advance remains in its infancy.

Supporting Factors Point to Extended Gains

Multiple tailwinds currently favor continuation. Persistent AI-driven corporate investment should fuel earnings growth. Meanwhile, the emerging lower interest-rate environment makes equity valuations more attractive relative to bonds. These factors, combined with historical precedent, suggest optimism is warranted for 2026 and possibly beyond.

The Important Caveat: History Is Not Destiny

That said, markets occasionally defy historical patterns. The S&P 500 could surprise investors by entering a downturn unexpectedly. Nothing guarantees that past cycles will repeat exactly. Markets are shaped by changing dynamics, geopolitical events, and unforeseen shocks that no historical model fully captures.

Nevertheless, historical trends remain valuable guides. They illuminate the most probable scenarios rather than certain outcomes. For individual investors, the broader lesson transcends any single year: equity indices have consistently advanced over multi-year and multi-decade timeframes. This reality suggests that buying stocks and maintaining positions through market cycles remains a powerful wealth-building strategy, regardless of what 2026 specifically brings.