Rare Earth & Uranium Play: Betting on MP or Energy Fuels in the Critical Minerals Race

Two American heavyweights are shaping the nation’s domestic critical minerals strategy. MP Materials MP, headquartered in Las Vegas with a $9.6 billion market cap, dominates as North America’s sole large-scale rare earth mining and processing operation through its Mountain Pass facility. Energy Fuels UUUU, based in Lakewood with a $3.58 billion valuation, leads uranium production and has diversified into rare earth elements (REEs) at its White Mesa Mill in Utah—the country’s only fully operational conventional uranium processing site.

For investors weighing exposure to the surging demand for REEs—essential components in clean technology, defense systems, and renewable energy—understanding each company’s strategic position, financial trajectory, and growth catalysts is crucial.

Valuation Tells Part of the Story

MP Materials trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 23.15X, while Energy Fuels commands a steeper 41.55X multiple. This valuation gap reflects market sentiment: MP’s clearer path to profitability and established production scale command a premium, yet remain cheaper than its competitor. Over the past 12 months, MP Materials outpaced Energy Fuels with a 228.8% gain versus 182.1%, suggesting institutional confidence in the former’s execution.

MP’s Integrated Advantage: From Ore to Advanced Magnets

MP Materials operates as America’s only vertically integrated rare earth producer, controlling the entire value chain from mining through advanced magnet manufacturing. This year brought two landmark developments: a long-term supply partnership with Apple AAPL to provide rare earth magnets sourced domestically from recycled materials, and a strategic agreement with the Department of Defense to accelerate magnet production capacity. The DoW-backed 10X Facility will push U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing to 10,000 metric tons annually, serving both defense and commercial sectors.

Third-quarter 2025 results reveal production momentum despite near-term margin pressures. NdPr (neodymium/praseodymium) output hit a record 721 metric tons, up 51% year-over-year, though rare earth oxide (REO) production dipped 4% to 13,254 metric tons. The Materials segment saw revenues collapse 50% to $31.6 million as the absence of concentrate sales offset strong NdPr oxide and metal pricing. Magnetics segment revenues reached $21.9 million, with commercial production ramp-up ongoing through year-end.

The company posted a $0.10 per share loss in Q3—tighter than last year’s $0.12 shortfall—as elevated spending on advanced projects and administrative costs outweighed operational gains. Management expects a return to profitability by Q4 2025, supported by the Department of Defense Price Protection Agreement (effective Oct. 1, 2025), which provides revenue stability and margin defense.

Energy Fuels’ Dual Exposure: Uranium Strength, REE Growth

Energy Fuels pursues a bifurcated strategy, leveraging White Mesa Mill’s versatility. Since 2022, the facility has produced mixed REE carbonate at commercial scale; NdPr production (using oxide symbol specifications for automotive-grade applications) commenced commercially in 2024. Recent milestones include pilot-scale dysprosium (Dy) oxide production in July 2025, with terbium (Tb) oxide pilot launches imminent and samarium (Sm) oxide planned for Q1 2026.

A critical breakthrough emerged when Energy Fuels’ high-purity dysprosium oxide cleared qualification standards for a major South Korean automotive manufacturer’s rare earth permanent magnet production. Combined with its earlier NdPr oxide qualification, Energy Fuels became the first U.S. company holding both light and heavy REE certifications for permanent magnet applications—a meaningful milestone in rebuilding domestic supply chains.

Uranium operations drove Q3 2025 revenue acceleration: total revenue surged to $17.7 million (up 337.6% year-over-year), powered by 240,000 pounds of uranium sold at an average $72.38 per pound. However, costs scaled faster—costs applicable to revenues exploded 592% to $12.78 million as the company sold higher volumes at elevated per-pound acquisition costs. The company reported a $0.07 per share loss, flat with the prior year despite revenue tripling. Energy Fuels’ debt-free balance sheet provides flexibility for capacity expansion, while its international portfolio—including the Donald Project in Australia (potentially producing by end-2027), Toliara in Madagascar, and Bahia in Brazil—offers long-term REE diversification.

Earnings Estimates & Analyst Sentiment

Consensus estimates diverge sharply. MP Materials faces a wider 2025 loss projection of $0.22 per share but is forecast to reach $0.68 earnings per share in 2026. Energy Fuels estimates suggest a $0.35 per share loss in 2025 narrowing only modestly to $0.06 in 2026. MP’s recent estimate revisions show 2025 forecasts improving while 2026 guidance has softened slightly. Energy Fuels’ estimates have trended downward across both years, signaling investor caution about timeline execution.

The Investment Calculus

MP Materials commands structural advantages: vertical integration, marquee partnerships (Apple, DoW), proven production scaling, and near-term profitability visibility. Its 23.15X forward P/S ratio—while premium—appears justified against execution confidence.

Energy Fuels offers diversification through dual uranium-REE exposure and international assets, yet faces nearer-term profitability uncertainty. Its 41.55X valuation reflects hype around REE capabilities rather than current financial performance.

For investors prioritizing near-term fundamentals, valuation efficiency, and de-risked execution, MP Materials currently holds the edge. Energy Fuels appeals to those seeking longer-dated optionality in both uranium and rare earth markets, accepting higher volatility and delayed profitability in exchange.