Unemployment Data Fluctuations: What Does Citi Say About the US Employment Outlook

HashBard · 2025-12-31T16:20:11+00:00

Citigroup economists warn that the decline in unemployment claims during the holiday period may be affected by seasonal adjustments, and the actual signal will need to be confirmed by January data. Despite low layoffs, non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 75,000 in December, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7%. Market signals continue to be released, and attention should be paid to subsequent data.

HashBard

2025-12-31 16:20:11

Abstract generation in progress

【Crypto World】Year-end economic data is here. Citigroup economists recently poured cold water on the situation—don’t be fooled by the superficial decline in unemployment claims before and after the holidays.

The numbers look good; during the week of Christmas, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped from 215,000 to 199,000, but the forecast was 220,000. Sounds a bit strange? Citigroup pointed out the issue: “The seasonal adjustment for holiday weeks this year has gone wrong, much more than in previous years. A more reliable signal of initial jobless claims will have to wait until January.”

But don’t be too pessimistic. Layoff numbers remain low, and Citigroup expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 75,000 in December, with this data to be released next week. The key point is that they also expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.7%—there’s an interesting logic behind this: the labor force participation rate is rising again.

In other words, the market continues to send signals, and we have to wait for the data to speak.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

WagmiOrRekt

· 9h ago

I'm really tired of the seasonal adjustment rhetoric; Citibank has been laying the groundwork for worse data later on from the very beginning.

View OriginalReply0

CafeMinor

· 9h ago

Seasonal adjustments are back at it again. Every holiday, they start passing the buck. Anyway, we'll see the results in January.

View OriginalReply0

MEVHunterZhang

· 9h ago

I've heard the term "seasonally adjusted" too many times; anyway, there's always a reason to interpret the data in any way. Let's wait until January, and then they'll come up with another excuse.

View OriginalReply0

APY_Chaser

· 9h ago

Seasonal adjustments are causing trouble again... Wait for January data. Anyway, December is only 75,000, and the unemployment rate is rising. This is setting a trap for the start of 2024.

View OriginalReply0

TradingNightmare

· 9h ago

Seasonal adjustment is an old trick. We'll only know the truth in January. However, the unemployment rate jumping to 4.7% isn't a good sign.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoHistoryClass

· 9h ago

ah, the classic "seasonal adjustments" cope... *checks historical unemployment charts* we've seen this exact narrative before every major correction. reminds me of the dot-com era when they kept saying "the data looks weird but trust us." 7.5k jobs added? that's not recovery, that's just noise. 4.7% unemployment smells like the setup before capitulation.

Reply0