Looking at the latest open interest data for ETH futures, the current situation is actually quite interesting.

Out of the total market position of 4.08 billion USD, 2,768 large traders are competing against each other. The long-short ratio is stuck at 50.46%, essentially a 50/50 split, meaning neither bulls nor bears are willing to go too far, and both sides are a bit hesitant at this level.

But what’s really heartbreaking is the distribution of positions: the 942 traders who are long are now losing 29.28 million USD, with an average entry price of $3051. It seems that 68.68% of them are still in profit, but this data is quite face-slapping—indicating that the vast majority of bottom-fishers entered at very low costs, possibly early on, while those who later added heavily at higher levels are badly trapped, artificially raising the average cost for the entire long camp.

On the other hand, the 1826 traders who are short have an unrealized profit of 3.8 million USD, with an average short entry at $2991. But they’re not doing well either; only 36.30% are actually making money, and most of the shorts probably sold at higher levels.

Currently, the price is sandwiched between these two cost lines: large longs are trapped, small shorts are making small profits, creating a tense standoff.

The most critical signal is—large orders are net selling. Recent trading data shows that the selling volume (8.57M) far exceeds the buying volume (7.06M). The anonymous large traders below are following the same pattern, selling 8.48 million and buying only 6.97 million. Even at this level, smart money is still trimming positions, which hardly looks like a bullish signal.