The relationship between Bitcoin and gold over the past two years is indeed worth pondering. In 2025, Bitcoin is projected to close around $87,600, representing an approximate 8% decline for the year and marking the first negative growth year since 2022; meanwhile, gold remains steady, with many institutions continuing to increase their holdings in digital asset tokenization. Interestingly, some prediction platforms are already betting on whether Bitcoin can surpass gold in 2026, and the discussion has gradually shifted from absolute price to relative returns—essentially a long-term contest between volatile assets and safe-haven assets.

The ratio chart offers an intriguing perspective. Since 2019, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has respected a certain long-term trendline, bouncing back each time it hits a bottom, never breaking through effectively. Analysts have pointed out that similar technical signals appeared in the past three cycles (2015, 2018, 2022), after which Bitcoin experienced significant excess returns over gold; now that this signal has reappeared, the market seems to be testing participants’ patience.

From a macro perspective, the ultimate winners will be determined by variables such as Federal Reserve policy directions, geopolitical shifts, and the US dollar trend. If risk assets experience a broad recovery, Bitcoin may benefit more; but if deflation fears rise, gold’s appeal will surpass. This contest essentially reflects the evolution of digital assets from pure speculation to a parallel existence alongside traditional assets—yet volatility always reminds us: don’t rush.