2025年加密货币市场的收官显得有点平淡，比特币在90000美元上下浮动，黄金和白银的涨势也没能带动它往上冲。但这种看似沉寂的行情背后，其实酝酿着一股由美联储政策转向驱动的流动性浪潮。不少机构已经嗅到了味道——2026年美联储很可能启动降息，而这一转变将彻底改写加密货币的估值逻辑和资金配置方向。

**Will interest rate cuts really happen? The market has given a clear answer**

CME FedWatch tool data clearly states: the market expects a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before June 2026. This is not baseless. The labor market is cooling down, inflation pressures are easing, and unexpected events like government shutdowns are disturbing economic data. The Fed has already taken action in December 2025—cutting rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%. But this is just the beginning. According to the dot plot, opinions within the Fed about the direction in 2026 are not unified: some advocate holding steady, while others are already considering lowering to 2.5%. This divergence actually amplifies market sensitivity, with any dovish signals being magnified infinitely.

**Why are rate cuts important for Bitcoin?**

Three transmission mechanisms are at play here. First is the expansion of dollar liquidity—rate cuts by the Fed directly increase dollar supply, lowering financing costs. Analysts point out that cheaper, more abundant dollars will seek new asset allocation directions. Second, the low-interest-rate environment depresses returns on traditional assets, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive by comparison. Third, historical data has long proven this logic: every rate-cutting cycle has been accompanied by a rebound in cryptocurrencies.

So the question now is not 'Will rates be cut?', but 'When will the allocation begin?'