The early morning crypto market never sleeps. On December 11th, when the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, the crypto world responded with excitement—Bitcoin surged sharply, retail investors flooded in, and the scene was almost more lively than New Year’s Eve. But this frenzy didn’t last long; the market quickly reversed, with Bitcoin oscillating between $88,000 and $92,000, leaving those chasing the highs firmly pressed to the floor.

This pattern isn’t new. The moment the rate cut news appeared, everyone was buying the anticipation; by the time reality set in, they were selling. A classic operation of cutting the leeks was played out just like that.

The deeper issue is that this rate cut was far from as friendly as it seemed. The Federal Reserve appeared to deliver a "sugar-coated missile," but at the same time, the dot plot sent a real signal: there will be at most one more rate cut by 2026. In other words, the possibility of continued easing is almost zero. Investors who had been hoping for sustained dovishness from the Fed were suddenly awakened.

What’s most surprising is the level of division within the Federal Reserve. Among the 12 voting members, 3 directly opposed this rate cut, 2 advocated for holding rates steady, and 1 even suggested a 50 basis point cut. This kind of disagreement is rare in the past six years. It’s as if the decision-making body couldn’t reach a consensus, turning future policy directions into Schrödinger’s uncertainty. In such an environment, market volatility will only become more frequent.

For investors, the lesson from this event is clear: don’t be blinded by surface-level good news. Policy signals sometimes reveal more than actual actions, and the Fed’s dot plot and internal divisions are already hinting at upcoming tightening expectations. Bitcoin’s oscillation between $88,000 and $92,000 is precisely the market digesting these conflicting signals.