Just as 2025 comes to an end and I finish reviewing the market trends, I see Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone's forecast—silver and Bitcoin will both decline in 2026. As someone who has been involved in the crypto and precious metals markets for 8 years, my first reaction isn't panic but rather finding the comparison between these two assets quite interesting. Today, I want to break down whether this warning of a downturn is a real risk or just alarmist talk.

Let's start with silver, this asset that has been hyped up. It closed at $72/ounce on December 31, which looks quite impressive. But there's a key data point to note—the premium over the 50-week moving average is 73%. To clarify what this means: the 50-week moving average basically represents the medium-term trend of the asset, and a premium over 50% is a warning sign of a bubble. The 73% figure is essentially a direct alarm signal.

Some might say, silver has surged before. In 1980, it indeed reached nearly $50. But what happened after that? It plummeted by 52%, falling from the high to $15.5 before stabilizing. Many retail investors got caught in that wave.

Even more interesting is this data—by the end of 2025, silver's closing price just barely surpasses the $32.2 level of 1979. In other words, after 46 years, silver has only just barely outpaced inflation. And the current price of $72? Basically, it's a frenzy driven by short-term speculative capital. Looking at historical patterns, the correction pressure on silver in 2026 shouldn't be underestimated. This contrast with Bitcoin's trend reflects a market sentiment shift from extreme greed to rationality.