2026-01-02 22:20:52

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown two clear trends: the sentiment indicator has finally recovered from extreme fear, but the Altcoin Season Index is only 23 points, indicating that Bitcoin is dominating the capital flow. In this market environment, many newcomers don't know how to operate, so I will organize some of my practical experience over the years.

First, let's talk about the core indicator, the Altcoin Season Index. 50 points is the dividing line; below 50 means Bitcoin is dominant, above 50 indicates altcoin rotation. The historical pattern is very clear: during Bitcoin seasons, Bitcoin's gains are often 2 to 3 times those of small coins, and the volatility is more moderate, with relatively controllable risk. What does the current 23 points mean? It means that capital from all sides is flocking to Bitcoin. If you insist on chasing small coins at this time, it's basically the same as chasing highs in a bear market. Recently, a project called SKY dropped 9.73%, which shows how low the tolerance for risk is for small coins in a weak environment.

Next, let's look at the sentiment aspect. Although the rebound to 29 points seems insignificant, what does it mean? Over the past eight weeks, the market has been dominated by fear. Investors have shifted from panic selling to a wait-and-see attitude. Now that the sentiment has slightly eased, capital is eager to move in. But where will this capital go? It will definitely head towards liquidity-rich and high-security leading assets like Bitcoin. According to previous data patterns, whenever sentiment rebounds from extreme fear to the general fear zone, Bitcoin often experiences a steady upward movement.

So, the current strategy is quite clear: go with the trend and follow the capital flow. When the combination of sentiment rebound and BTC season appears, instead of worrying about those high-uncertainty small coins, it’s better to focus on mainstream coins. Consider rotation only when the Altcoin Season Index truly exceeds 50 points. There are always opportunities in the market, but the prerequisite is to survive long enough.

BTC0,56%

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TradingNightmare

· 10h ago

In an environment like 23 minutes, chasing altcoins is just asking for death. I've already learned my lesson. This wave, just hold onto BTC and don't touch anything else. That SKY thing dropped below a certain level overnight, it's too outrageous. Let's talk about rotation after 50 minutes or more; it's too risky now. It's been a long time since I've seen such clear signals. Just follow the mainstream. This time, I listened and didn't chase the small coin gains.

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DuskSurfer

· 10h ago

Another BTC season sermon, but there's nothing wrong with it... 23 points is indeed a signal, don't even try to touch small altcoins now. Dipping into small altcoins is equivalent to courting death, just stick with BTC this time. Wait, why are there still people buying the dip on SKY? Truly, the retail investors can’t be cut enough. Thinking of going all-in with only 29 points of sentiment? That mindset worries me... This logic is sound, but beginners just can't accept it, they insist on copying others to go all-in on altcoins. Living long is much harder than making quick money, but unfortunately, most people can't see through this.

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 10h ago

Is that the same old excuse again, not touching altcoins at 23%? I scoff, it's about time to bottom out Wait, SKY drops 9.73% and you all get scared? The time to hunt for profits in a bear market is here BTC is seasonal, but don't you know where the real gains are? This rebound is about to start, and the gains from small-cap coins will make you regret it Instead of sticking to BTC for steady growth, why not take a high-risk, high-reward gamble? As long as you're alive, it's fine Only at 50% rotation? By then, all the opportunities will have been eaten up, alright

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GreenCandleCollector

· 10h ago

That's so true, you have to live long enough to make money. Too many die before dawn. During the BTC season, just hold Bitcoin firmly. There's really no need to gamble on those small coins; the risk is too high. 23 minutes is the signal. Chasing altcoins now is just asking for trouble. Just wait it out. Emotional rebound + BTC season, this combo is the real deal. Mainstream coins are much more stable. I saw SKY drop so sharply before; indeed, small coins have no tolerance for errors at all. It's really frightening.

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