#BTC 2026 marks the beginning of the year, and Bitcoin's performance is less about the price itself and more about when the macro "starting gun" will fire. Currently, the market is in a wait-and-see mode; institutions and large funds are optimistic about the prospects but are waiting for a clearer signal.

Why are they holding back? The core reason is too much uncertainty. The Federal Reserve's internal views on the 2026 interest rate path are inconsistent—some expect a rate cut, others anticipate two cuts, and some believe rates will stay unchanged. Amid these disagreements, smart incremental capital is observing quietly, waiting for a definitive signal.

There are several key time windows in January worth noting:

**January 9** — Announcement of the new Federal Reserve leadership nomination, alongside U.S. unemployment rate data. The new leader's policy stance will directly influence the monetary policy tone for the coming years.

**January 13** — Release of U.S. CPI data (this is the main event). Inflation data will directly impact market expectations for rate cuts and risk appetite.

**January 27-28** — FOMC meeting. This is a critical moment for the Fed to clarify its first interest rate guidance for 2026, and the overall market direction is likely to be set around this time.

These three points not only influence Bitcoin but also relate to the logic of global asset allocation. For those holding their positions, understanding macro fundamentals is indeed much more important than guessing short-term fluctuations.

From market expectations, Bitcoin's operation in 2026 will become more institutionalized, with price targets concentrated between $120,000 and $170,000. Some analyses suggest that driven by sovereign funds and institutional capital, it could surge to $250,000. But all of this depends on receiving a clear direction this month.

Short-term volatility is inevitable, but don’t be shaken out by the turbulence. Patience is the most valuable asset this January. #加密行情预测