#数字资产动态追踪 The Institutional Tug-of-War Behind Ethereum's Short-Term Rally

In the past 24 hours, $ETH has shown many bullish signals, but how long the buying momentum can sustain remains to be seen. A roughly 4% increase sounds good, but several forces are currently at play.

**Development Progress Is Indeed Boosting Confidence**

Vitalik's 2026 roadmap prioritizes decentralization and scalability. Recent upgrades like Pectra and Fusaka have indeed improved efficiency. From a technical perspective, Ethereum's infrastructure is gradually strengthening, giving long-term holders more confidence. Even more exciting is JPMorgan launching a tokenized money market fund product on-chain, and BitMine planning to initiate large-scale institutional staking in 2026, indicating real institutional capital flowing in.

**Technical Indicators Flash Overbought Warnings**

The EMA alignment at 72599 and the MACD indicators are quite strong, but that's also the problem—both the 12-period and 24-period RSI have broken above 70, entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, trading volume has sharply declined over the past 24 hours, with peak activity seeming to be a thing of the past. The entire crypto market's trading enthusiasm has fallen to its lowest point of the year in December. This combination of data suggests a short-term correction risk is imminent.

**Institutional Arbitrage Games**

Even more concerning, BlackRock sold $21.1 million worth of $ETH during the same period, with a whale swapping ETH for gold and losing $18.8 million. This indicates not all institutions are bullish in unison; some are taking profits or rotating assets.

**Community Dilemma**

Traders are divided—some are optimistic about whales' continued accumulation and technological breakthroughs, while others are looking for shorting opportunities, wary of irregular trading patterns. The correlation between $BTC and $BNB also warrants attention. Under these mixed expectations, a one-sided trend in the short term seems unlikely.