Cryptocurrency Signals to Watch in 2026 and Beyond

Compilation: Plain Blockchain

The digital asset market is迎接the year-end with limited liquidity and closely watched US macro calendar. Although risk assets are currently stable, several major events this week could influence immediate sentiment, especially in the highly reactive cryptocurrency environment with low trading volume.

As liquidity wanes, this week’s events are more likely to cause short-term volatility peaks rather than establish lasting trends. Investors should stay alert, focusing on key technical indicators while waiting for clear signals after liquidity normalizes.

• US-FOMC Meeting Minutes (Tuesday): The market will seek insights on 2026 rate cuts timing and pace. A shift in tone could impact risk appetite.
• US Employment Data (Wednesday): Initial unemployment claims will provide labor market information. Weak data may reinforce expectations of monetary easing, while strong data could suppress rate cut hopes and pressure risk assets.
• New Year’s Day Market Closure: The US stock market will be closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day, further reducing market liquidity, which could lead even minor surprises to trigger significant crypto market price swings.

Key Levels to Watch

• Bitcoin (BTC): Focus on whether it can hold above the $89,500–$90,000 support zone. If macro positives emerge, BTC may rebound to $90,500, or even approach the $93,000–$93,650 resistance zone. Falling below $89,500 could see a retreat to $87,500–$88,000.
• Ethereum (ETH): Currently stabilizing above the $2,900–$3,000 critical support level. Positive reactions could push it back into the $3,200–$3,300 resistance zone; if it drops below $2,900, it may sharply decline to $2,650–$2,700.

2026 Macro Themes

The link between the crypto market and global macro factors is growing closer. Volatility in risk assets, changes in monetary policy, and shifts in US dollar liquidity have become key determinants of capital flows in digital assets.

Central Banks and Cryptocurrencies

In 2025, changes in the political climate of multiple countries have raised questions about central bank independence. Discussions about leadership changes and political pressures at major central banks have increased market anxiety. Diminished trust in traditional monetary policy often leads to increased interest in decentralized or limited digital assets (as a store of wealth). Investors should closely monitor central bank developments in 2026, as any signs of political interference could quickly adjust risk premiums across markets.

AI Boom, Bubbles, and Volatility

In 2025, AI applications advanced rapidly, but latest indicators show revenues and corporate earnings falling short of expectations. The crypto market is highly correlated with the tech sector. If AI valuations are re-evaluated, chain reactions could occur, suppressing liquidity and causing digital asset prices to decline. Conversely, ongoing progress in AI infrastructure could boost sentiment and attract speculative capital back into crypto.

Will 2026 Be the “Post-Tariff Year”?

Although the impact of tariff measures on consumer prices has been slower than expected, rising import costs and supply chain disruptions have begun affecting corporate profits. Trade-driven persistent inflation limits central banks’ ability to ease policies. Long-term high interest rates will suppress risk appetite and restrict speculative funds. While evidence is still limited, some participants view digital assets as inflation-hedging safe havens.

Summary

In early 2026, the interplay of central bank autonomy, AI valuation trends, tariff-induced inflation, and US dollar stability will be core factors influencing market trends. This increased uncertainty raises the likelihood of sporadic sharp volatility in the crypto market in the first half of 2026. When political uncertainties threaten the stability of reserve currencies, implementing hedging strategies against currency and interest rate volatility becomes crucial.

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