In early 2026, U.S. economic policies are sending dual signals—tariff adjustments coupled with large-scale tax refunds. This combination is recreating the bullish prelude of October 2023. Already, $2 billion in liquidity has flooded into the market, with MEME coins like PEPE leading the charge, while funds for BTC and ETH continue to flow out. Don’t misunderstand—this isn’t a bearish view on mainstream coins, but rather seasoned market players using retail investors’ profit-seeking desires to "warm up" the scene, setting the stage for a major rally in mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Why are MEME coins the first to take off? The reason is quite pragmatic.

The appeal of MEME coins lies in their low barrier to entry. With strong community consensus and a small market cap, only a small amount of capital is needed to drive prices sharply higher, quickly creating profit effects. This effect acts like an amplifier, easily attracting incremental outside funds to follow the trend, instantly activating market liquidity. In contrast, giants like BTC and ETH have enormous market caps, requiring much higher capital input to move their prices. The smart money’s strategy is to concentrate efforts on MEME coins to generate profit effects first. Once retail investors cheer and celebrate, funds will naturally flow into mainstream coins. This path was traveled in October 2023—billions of dollars flooded into the market, DOGE led the surge, and then the entire market followed. Now, history repeats itself, and the market has formed an expectation of "MEME first rises, followed by mainstream coins."

The core driver of this cycle is the tax refunds. Over 100 million Americans will receive refunds, averaging $3,278 per person, with a total scale potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars—similar to the stimulus checks during the pandemic, directly boosting consumer spending and risk appetite. Retail investors receiving refunds are likely to flow into the crypto market, with small-cap and MEME coins benefiting first due to their flexible trading and high price elasticity.

However, there is also a double-edged sword. The massive influx of liquidity could intensify inflationary pressures, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to slow down its rate cuts, which could impact long-term market expectations. Short-term opportunities coexist with long-term risks, and participants need to weigh these carefully.