#美联储降息 Trump plans to replace the Federal Reserve Chair, and the new appointee advocates for significant rate cuts—this signal is very critical. I have seen too many people get overly excited about such policy expectations, only to dive headfirst into various "rate cut benefits" projects, and by the time they realize it, they’ve been completely wiped out.

The rate cut cycle indeed releases liquidity, but the problem is: retail investors are always the last to know this news. Institutions and big players have already made their arrangements long before the public hears about it. When the media is flooded with headlines like "Rate Cuts Are Coming," it’s actually a signal that they are starting to unload their positions. I’ve been in this industry for many years and have seen countless rounds of "policy benefits," which ultimately turn into stories of catching the falling knife at high levels.

The current rhythm is very familiar—first, hype is built around expectations, then project teams start telling stories of "asset revaluation under rate cuts," followed by a surge of projects with no fundamentals. If you are still chasing the latest hot projects, I tell you, this time is no different. Genuine good opportunities never shout so loudly.

Instead of betting on policy directions, it’s better to build your defenses first: see if the project is just talking PPT stories again, whether the team has a history of rug pulls, and if liquidity is problematic. Longevity is always more important than quick gains. This rate cut expectation will heat up the market, but the higher the temperature, the more traps there are.