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#稳定币市场与应用 After reviewing Ethereum's 2025 summary, I have to say honestly — this time is different.
Remember those years when we chased after high prices? Every time a new concept or application launched, we followed the trend and rushed in, only to be cut multiple times. The same goes for stablecoins. How many projects have we seen that used the name stablecoin to raise funds? But now, the data is clear: over $300 billion in supply, $4.6 trillion in annual trading volume. This is real financial infrastructure, no longer just gambling chips.
What worries me most is this prosperity — Ethereum

#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the data that Q4 dropped over 22%, I have to be honest. This rebound to 90,000 definitely caught many people's attention, but a closer look at the underlying logic reveals that it's not a good sign.
Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The recent sharp decline was severe, and the rebound is just a relief from excessive selling pressure. Such rebounds are often the most deceptive. Looking now, it's still 30% below the beginning of the year. What does this indicate? It shows that there has been no new capital truly optimistic about this marke

#比特币价格走势 Seeing this report from VanEck, I have to be honest—I've seen this logic too many times.
Does a drop in hash rate necessarily mean a bullish signal? Historical data shows a 65% probability of positive returns? It sounds convincing, but my on-chain experience tells me that these "historical patterns" are often just stories used by market manipulators to harvest retail investors. Data can speak, but data can also deceive.
Let me break it down: miners capitulate, small operators exit—these surface phenomena can indeed occur. But more importantly, how many hidden market players are still

#永续合约市场动态 Christmas week liquidity contraction is a warning bell I need to ring for everyone. Yesterday, the open interest in perpetual contracts plummeted overnight—BTC decreased by $3 billion, ETH decreased by $2 billion—this is not a positive signal; rather, it indicates that the market is actively deleveraging, and everyone is pulling back.
Over the years in the crypto space, I’ve seen many traps during holidays. Once liquidity thins out, it becomes a hunting ground for big players. Historical data shows that during Christmas week, a 5%-7% volatility is common, but in an environment with

#BTC市场分析 The October crash was the most clearly seen not in the price itself, but in the chips speaking. Now, with on-chain data laid out, long-term holders are engaging in an epic distribution—this is a signal—someone is cashing out profits, someone is cutting losses, and some are lying flat and accepting their fate.
25.36 million BTC are accumulated between $80,000 and $90,000, an increase of 1.874 million from October. It looks like a bottom support, but I need to ask myself a question: Are these chips truly locked in by long-term value believers, or are they forced trapped positions? The

#比特币价格走势 When I saw this data, I have to admit, the alarm bells in my heart haven't stopped ringing.
Bitcoin hitting a new low in Q4 2025 since 2018 is a signal with a much more complex underlying logic than just a simple price decline. The most heartbreaking part is—I’ve seen too many old hands getting caught off guard here.
In summary, there are three main issues: First, AI has completely changed the flow of global capital. The electricity and funds that once flowed into Bitcoin mining farms are now pouring into NVIDIA data centers. This is not an emotional preference but a cold capital cho

#稳定币增长与监管 Seeing the news that Amplify has launched stablecoins and tokenized ETFs, my first reaction is: institutions are entering the market, but this isn't necessarily a good thing.
Remember a few years ago those projects claiming to be "institutional-grade"? What was the result? A mess. This time, with ETFs listed on NYSE Arca holding assets like XRP, SOL, ETH, and LINK, it looks like the mainstream has arrived on the surface, but the underlying logic is worth pondering.
Stablecoins and tokenized assets are indeed the big trend, but the key questions are: who profits from this? Where does

#预测市场 Seeing Kalshi's research report, I have to say this is worth pondering. The accuracy of prediction markets is 40% less than the Wall Street consensus, with the greatest advantage during economic fluctuations — the logic behind this is actually very simple: real monetary incentives are much more reliable than theoretical predictions.
But there's a trap to watch out for. As prediction markets become popular, inevitably someone will try to cash in, and various projects like "prediction mechanism tokens" and "inflation hedging tools" will emerge endlessly. I've seen too many retail investor

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the news that Kalshi is integrating with BSC, I have to calmly pour cold water on it. Prediction markets sound great—directly trading the outcomes of real-world events, which seems like the ultimate value discovery mechanism. But that’s precisely where pitfalls are easy to fall into.
I’ve seen too many people attracted by promotions like "best liquidity, most direct." The problem is: the more participants in the prediction market, the greater the manipulation space for big players. What you’re trading isn’t real value, but a game of information asymmetry. Institutions h

#比特币现货ETF After reviewing the asset landscape in 2025, I have to say something heartfelt: Bitcoin has underperformed compared to gold and US stocks, and the underlying logic behind this is much more interesting than mere price fluctuations.
Over the past few years, I’ve seen too many people chasing highs and lows, but few truly understand where capital is flowing and why. Currently, AI computing power is competing for the electricity quotas that once belonged to Bitcoin mining farms. Think about it—those Bitcoin mines converted into AI computing centers are the best proof. Capital is always p

#比特币价格走势 Looking at the clash of opinions among analysts these days, it's really enough to make you laugh. Tom Lee predicts Bitcoin will hit a new high by the end of January 2026, but his team then suggests it might drop to just over 60,000 in the first half of next year. James Wynn is opening 40x leverage on short-term longs, and Banmu Xia directly calls for stopping the bullish outlook—this kind of scene is a vivid portrayal of the daily life of retail investors.
Having navigated this market for many years, my biggest lesson is: don’t be blinded by a single voice. The narrative of short-ter

#衍生品市场合约 Friday's $28.5 billion options settlement, as soon as I saw that number I knew the market was about to be "educated" once again. 300,000 BTC options, record-breaking scale, low liquidity, bloodsucking from precious metals—these conditions stacking together create a perfect volatility amplifier.
Having been in this market for so many years, the thing I fear most is this kind of "predictably unpredictable." Options settlement itself is neutral, but the problem is that when all participants know a wave is coming, the market makers are actually most willing to create unexpected volatilit

#比特币价格表现 Looking at the prediction probability on Polymarket dropping from $100,000 to 8%, I have to say that the market sentiment shift is quite interesting. In just two days, the bearish sentiment has clearly intensified, with the probability of reaching $95,000 dropping from 32% to 25%, while the probability of falling below $80,000 has increased.
This is what I often say—don't be driven by FOMO. When the narrative of hitting $100,000 by the end of the year is everywhere, I am observing. The more enthusiastic the market consensus, the greater the hidden risks tend to be. Now, as the probab

#稳定币生态发展 My first reaction to seeing this news is: finally, someone is seriously pushing forward with a compliant framework for stablecoins. But I have to be honest, there's a lot of complexity involved.
Over the years in the crypto space, I've seen too many projects claiming to be "stablecoins" that are actually just tools to harvest retail investors. I've seen algorithmic stablecoins, and so-called under-collateralized junk coins. So when I see official discussions about "whitelist systems" and "transparent reserve audits," I become more cautious—because it means that the gray-area projects

#美联储政策 Seeing this wave of predictions, I have to calmly say a few heartfelt words.
Cathie Wood says inflation could drop to 0% by 2026, and UBS forecasts continued gains in the US stock market. Sounds great, right? But after years of navigating this market, I’ve learned one crucial lesson: the more optimistic the forecast, the more you should question it.
Where’s the problem? All these predictions are based on a bunch of "ifs"—if oil prices keep falling, if rents decline, if policy directions become clear, if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. If any one of these variables goes wron

#比特币价格走势 Looking at this wave of asset review analysis, I have to say honestly: many people are still confused about why Bitcoin underperforms compared to gold and US stocks. Actually, this question itself is asked the wrong way.
Back then, I also made this mistake—focusing only on price fluctuations, ignoring the underlying energy flow. Looking back now, the performance of Bitcoin in 2025 precisely illustrates a reality: capital is always the reality. The economic value added per kilowatt-hour generated at AI computing centers indeed temporarily surpasses the marginal returns from hash colli

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the surge in prediction markets, I have a few heartfelt words to share. Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company, Crypto.com hiring quantitative traders, Kalshi integrating with BSC—on the surface, it looks like a hot track, but I smell a familiar scent behind these news.
Remember the DeFi Summer a few years ago? The same story: exchanges piling up their layouts, funding rounds increasing, and then? Most projects became tools for harvesting profits from retail investors. Prediction markets are likely to follow this path.
Now, there are a few points to be especially cauti

#机构投资者比特币配置 Seeing JPMorgan's plan to provide crypto trading services to institutional clients, this matter needs to be viewed calmly.
I've seen too many people get excited over news of "institutional entry" only to be completely wiped out afterward. JPMorgan's move this time looks impressive, but the key words to focus on are—"considering," "evaluating," "depending on demand and regulatory feasibility." In other words, nothing is finalized yet; it's still in the planning stage.
What should we really be cautious about? After this news comes out, there will be many projects, exchanges, and fin

#比特币持仓与投资 Seeing Saylor's remarks, I have to pour some cold water. Raising a 5% position to $1 million, 7% to $10 million—this logic sounds great, but it’s important to understand: this is based on a hypothetical scenario, not a realistic roadmap.
Over the years in the crypto space, I’ve seen too many "if... then..." stories, and never one that followed the script exactly. The problem is, when institutions accumulate this level of coins, market dynamics will completely change. Liquidity, regulatory risks, timing of sell-offs—these variables are beyond anyone’s control.
A more realistic consid

#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing the recent surge in precious metals, with gold breaking through $4380 to hit a new all-time high, I actually feel more cautious. I've seen this scene too many times—when safe-haven funds start pouring into traditional assets wildly, it often signals collective anxiety about the future.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts heating up, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical tensions—these factors indeed cause funds to flee risk assets. But the key question is: after these funds exit, where will they ultimately flow? History shows that when risk-free returns decline sharply, institutio