#永续合约市场动态 Christmas week liquidity contraction is a warning bell I need to ring for everyone. Yesterday, the open interest in perpetual contracts plummeted overnight—BTC decreased by $3 billion, ETH decreased by $2 billion—this is not a positive signal; rather, it indicates that the market is actively deleveraging, and everyone is pulling back.

Over the years in the crypto space, I’ve seen many traps during holidays. Once liquidity thins out, it becomes a hunting ground for big players. Historical data shows that during Christmas week, a 5%-7% volatility is common, but in an environment with leverage stacking, this range can wipe you out completely.

Even more painfully, on Friday, 370,000 options contracts are set to expire, with over 50% of open interest clustered together, and the critical point is around $95,000—look at where the price is now. That’s why I never leverage before holidays. Those claims that the "Christmas market" is about to take off are just sedatives prepared for the retail investors.

At the end of the year, tax-loss harvesting operations add to the risk. In a low liquidity environment, anyone could be the next to get crushed. My advice is: reduce your position risk exposure, stay away from contracts, and wait until January when liquidity recovers to make plans. Living longer is much more important than making quick money.