#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the data that Q4 dropped over 22%, I have to be honest. This rebound to 90,000 definitely caught many people's attention, but a closer look at the underlying logic reveals that it's not a good sign.

Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The recent sharp decline was severe, and the rebound is just a relief from excessive selling pressure. Such rebounds are often the most deceptive. Looking now, it's still 30% below the beginning of the year. What does this indicate? It shows that there has been no new capital truly optimistic about this market throughout the year.

Seasonal factors are particularly worth cautioning about. In previous years, Q4 has been a lively period for Bitcoin, but in years with tight liquidity, this "pattern" becomes a trap. Currently, the market is still frequently pulling back during US trading hours, indicating many people are still trapped at high levels. As soon as there's a slight rebound, they rush to cut positions. In this situation, short-term volatility risks are very high.

My advice is not to be fooled by this small rebound. A true trend reversal requires volume support and genuine macroeconomic improvement, not just technical signals playing tricks on themselves. Before confirming a bottom signal, caution is still necessary. Living longer is much more important than living faster.