#比特币价格走势 Galaxy Research's report seems to give the market a very wide expected range—probability is evenly split between BTC ending the year at 50,000 and 250,000. This "Schrödinger's Bitcoin" situation indicates that institutions are indeed uncertain about 2026.

But this is precisely an opportunity to follow the trend. I've been observing the positions of a few experts recently, and interestingly, their styles are completely polarized—aggressive traders are actually increasing long positions for long-term allocation amid this uncertainty, while conservative traders are repeatedly engaging in short-term trades within the 3-5 month range.

The key is to recognize your own risk appetite before choosing whom to follow. If you can tolerate a 20% drawdown, you can follow those traders who are willing to heavily load at the bottom; if you can only accept 5% volatility, then honestly follow quantitative arbitrage or steady, phased accumulation strategies.

The $250,000 target is indeed tempting, but the truth is that by 2026, "the market will be too chaotic to predict accurately"—which means high volatility and frequent stop-loss triggers. My advice is: don't go all-in on any single prediction; use a diversified strategy to hedge against different scenarios. For example, allocate 50% to aggressive traders, 30% to steady traders, and keep 20% as flexible capital to respond to black swan events.

Experience will prove the truth—by Q2-Q3, you'll see whose strategy truly withstands the market test.