#比特币技术分析 The US rate hike has landed, and the market is full of bullish voices. But I have to pour some cold water — these analysts' projected numbers sound quite appealing, with key resistance levels at 98,600 to 107,000, and strong resistance at 112,500. I looked at it for a long time, and the most insightful comment was actually "the market complexity is relatively high during this process."

What does high complexity mean? It means high uncertainty and many risk points. Over the years, I’ve stepped into too many pits, and what I fear most is when a bunch of people are all bullish — that’s often the easiest time to get caught.

The rebound after the rate hike indeed boosted sentiment, but can sentiment be eaten?

The Federal Reserve is still there, and next year's policy path is not yet decided. Predictions like the yen depreciating to 200 sound exciting, but betting real money on this? I advise you to stay calm. Bitcoin’s technical pattern is indeed in a consolidation phase, which is an opportunity but also a dangerous signal — sideways consolidation often precedes big moves.

My advice is: understand your current position clearly, don’t be blinded by a bunch of numbers and target levels. True risk prevention isn’t about chasing highs, but about staying alert in such complex market conditions. Wait until these key resistance levels are broken before making moves; the current prosperity might just be surface-level.