#预测市场 I recently came across Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and I was amazed! 🤯 Turns out you can use this method to predict political events? After watching Waller's interview with the Federal Reserve Chair, his probability on the platform changed from a certain number to 14%, it felt like watching a real-time "betting game."

But honestly, I’m still a bit confused. How exactly does a prediction market work? Is it just everyone betting money, and whoever predicts correctly makes money? 🤔 And how is that 14% calculated? Is it based on market trading volume or something else? It feels more exciting than traditional polls...

I read in the news that Haskett's probability has risen to 56%, which means the market favors him to be the next Chair? It seems these numbers definitely reflect the financial sector’s judgment on policy directions. As a newcomer, I want to ask everyone: are these probability data from prediction markets really reliable? Are there any veterans who can explain how to get started? Do you need a professional background? 🙌