#比特币价格走势 Seeing the data update from Polymarket, the market's expectation of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 again this year is indeed waning — based on earlier data, this probability has already dropped to 11%. To be honest, this reflects not a technical issue but a re-pricing of psychological expectations.

The enthusiasm for 100,000 at the beginning of the year now seems overly optimistic. The market is reassessing: a 32% chance of reaching 95,000, and a 24% chance of dropping below 80,000 — this divergence indicates that the current consensus is "there is a ceiling, but also a bottom."

From a copy-trading perspective, this timing is crucial. Aggressive traders may be adjusting their position sizes, while conservative traders are taking the opportunity to build positions. I am observing the movements of a few experts; they have recently been doing a common action: lowering individual trade sizes but increasing trading frequency. This is a typical "reduce odds, increase win rate" strategy — using multiple small, certain gains to hedge against the uncertainty of large single trades.

If you are a copy-trader, what you should focus on now is not whether 100,000 can be reached, but ask yourself: is your copy target betting on direction, or playing a probability game? The former carries higher risk, while the latter is more worth following. In this market divergence, those who turn around the fastest are often the ones making real money.