#预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's comments on prediction markets, I deeply resonate.

It's indeed easy for such phenomena to occur on social media—when a big influencer states "something will definitely happen," it immediately sparks a wave of reactions. People follow the trend, panic, and make impulsive decisions driven by emotion. But when you check the actual probabilities of that event on Polymarket, they are often only single digits. This contrast is quite interesting and also very comforting.

This makes me think of a common issue in investing. We are always easily fooled by "certainty" in predictions—someone predicts a surge in 2025, another says the market will crash. But what truly constrains these predictions is the "real money" at stake. When you have to bet your own money, your wording tends to be much more cautious.

That's also why I have always emphasized the importance of safety education. It's not about you completely distrust any analysis, but about building your own judgment system—seeking verification from multiple sources, looking at where the real data and incentives point, rather than being hijacked by emotional statements. Position management and a long-term mindset are essentially using "economic penalties" to protect yourself. When you only allocate risks you can afford, even the most extreme predictions can't harm your core assets.

Rationality is not indifference, but a more responsible attitude towards yourself and your family.