NewbiePlaysBlockchain

#比特币价格预测 Seeing the recent fluctuations in Bitcoin, I want to share an observation with everyone. Forced liquidations, policy uncertainty, corporate buying enthusiasm cooling—these factors stacking up have indeed put pressure on the market. But this is precisely the time to test our investment mindset.
I notice that many people tend to be swayed by emotions during market volatility, even changing their original allocation plans. In fact, there's no need to do so. Looking back, those who truly achieve steady gains are often not the ones who frequently time the market, but those who stick to po

#比特币价格与估值 When I saw this set of data, I was thinking about a question: what does the huge gap between the holding cost and the current price reflect?
BitMine's Ethereum unrealized loss is $4.1 billion, with a holding cost of $3,906, and the current price is $2,868. This is not just a simple numerical decline, but a textbook case about timing, positioning, and mindset.
I often tell everyone that the hardest part of investing is not choosing the right asset, but maintaining rationality amid long-term fluctuations. When you see such unrealized losses, someone might ask: why not cut losses at th

#稳定币 Seeing the recent predictions about Bitcoin volatility in 2026, I want to share some honest thoughts with everyone. On one hand, Galaxy Research suggests Bitcoin could hit new highs; on the other hand, well-known analysts are already short-term bearish, and even Tether is increasing its gold holdings—what do these signals tell us?
The answer is simple: uncertainty is increasing. And in the face of uncertainty, the greatest test is never our forecasting ability but our risk management skills.
I noticed repeatedly mentioned in the information that the importance of stablecoins is a key det

#机构采用 Seeing the news that BlackRock's CIO is competing for the Fed Chair, I thought of something. In investing, we are often attracted by "big events," believing that high-level personnel changes will directly alter market trends. But my experience over the years tells me that what truly determines asset safety is often not these macro news stories themselves.
Entering the policy-making level, institutions like BlackRock indeed represent an expanding crypto-friendly voice, which is a long-term trend signal. But for individual investors, the key question is: can your portfolio allocation with

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the recent discussions about the technical aspects of BTC and ETH, I want to share a fundamental principle that long-term investors need to uphold.
RSI severely oversold, clear bottom signals—these words sound very tempting and are indeed supported by data. But I need to remind everyone that the bottom of a technical chart is often the most emotionally volatile point. Every major dip is followed by voices claiming "mean reversion, inevitable"—and sometimes these are validated, but more often, we see wave after wave of "bottoms."
Inflation and changes in monetary policy do infl

#加密货币监管框架 Seeing this message, I am reminded of the conversations I've had with many investors over the past few years. Whenever it comes to emerging asset classes, people tend to swing between excitement and concern. The same applies to stablecoins.
In fact, the gradual development of the regulatory framework is good news for long-term participants. The "China Plan" pilot program in free trade zones—including the whitelist system, transparent reserve audits, and risk control mechanisms—these seemingly strict requirements are essentially in place to protect investors' asset safety.
My observa

#网络钓鱼与欺诈 Seeing the 50 million USDT phishing case, I am reminded of the many similar stories I have encountered over the years. Victims are often intelligent people who slip up over a seemingly minor detail—the truncated address.
The essence of this incident is actually quite heartbreaking: we are accustomed to convenience, but in that convenience, hidden dangers are lurking. When copying and pasting, seeing "0xbaf4...B649" seems fine, but unaware that scammers have carefully generated deceptive addresses with matching start and end characters. The risk is hidden in our visual blind spots.
Le

#比特币价格预测 Seeing the recent discussions about Bitcoin, there's a detail I want to share with everyone.
The market is still filled with optimistic voices; many believe the decline will quickly reverse. Interestingly, this might actually indicate that the panic sentiment is not yet sufficient. The true bottom usually occurs when no one dares to look at their accounts, rather than when everyone is discussing a rebound.
Analysis institutions suggest that Bitcoin could continue to decline to around $75,000, which means there is still a 14-15% drop potential from current levels. In the long term, th

#加密货币监管立法 I've read quite a bit over the past few days about the "GENIUS Act" and stablecoins, and there's a detail I want to share with everyone.
Many people have worried that stablecoins could deplete bank deposits, and the logic sounds convincing—if my money can be transferred at any time within 24 hours and can earn better returns, why keep it in a traditional account? However, Cornell University's latest research indicates that reality isn't so dramatic. In fact, despite the rapid growth in stablecoin market capitalization, no significant large-scale deposit outflows have been observed.

#市场周期与投资策略 Seeing this set of data from the Brazilian crypto market reminds me of a recent experience of a friend who is an investor. They have shifted from simply chasing gains to diversifying their assets — this change is exactly what we see reflected in the Brazilian market. Behind the 43% activity growth, what comforts me most is not the numbers themselves, but the maturity of investment concepts.
Did you notice? 18% of investors have already started diversifying their holdings, and trading volume in stablecoins has grown to three times that of last year. What does this indicate? It shows

#预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's comments on prediction markets, I deeply resonate.
It's indeed easy for such phenomena to occur on social media—when a big influencer states "something will definitely happen," it immediately sparks a wave of reactions. People follow the trend, panic, and make impulsive decisions driven by emotion. But when you check the actual probabilities of that event on Polymarket, they are often only single digits. This contrast is quite interesting and also very comforting.
This makes me think of a common issue in investing. We are always easily fooled by "certainty" in predictio

#预测市场平台 Seeing CZ talk about prediction markets and long-term opportunities, I was reminded that many friends have recently asked me the same question: "Are these new tracks opportunities? Should I go all in?"
Honestly, there is a phrase in CZ's view that is worth pondering—"True victory is achieved in long-term competition." Prediction markets are indeed hot, but their popularity often comes with risks. I see too many people attracted by short-term hot spots, ignoring a fundamental rule: in the early stages of any emerging track, uncertainty is very high.
Cryptocurrency markets are still in

#比特币价格走势 Seeing two predictions about Bitcoin's 2026 trend, I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
On one hand, Tom Lee's team believes Bitcoin is expected to hit a new all-time high before the end of January next year, with a year-end target of about $115,000, which indeed gives many people hope. But on the other hand, they also clearly point out that there may be a noticeable decline in the first half of 2026, with Bitcoin possibly falling back to $60,000-$65,000.
These two viewpoints seem contradictory, but they actually reflect a very realistic issue—long-term optimism does not mean

#AI交易应用 Seeing CZ's discussion about AI trading, I thought of the recent anxiety among many investor friends.
Indeed, AI trading tools are gaining popularity, but the paradox he raises is worth our deep reflection: if an AI algorithm could truly make stable profits, why would the developer sell it as a service to you and me instead of making money quietly themselves? This logical loophole precisely reflects the reality of many "magical tools" in the market.
More importantly, that sentence—once a successful strategy is widely adopted, its effectiveness diminishes. The market is essentially a p

#资产代币化 Recently, I have observed new developments in the tokenization of the US stock market, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.
The SEC's no-action letter to DTC has been widely interpreted as "US stocks are finally going on-chain," but the true meaning of this document is much more complex. A careful reading reveals that it is not about revolutionizing the stocks themselves, but rather optimizing the back-end bookkeeping method—re-mapping existing rights and interests using blockchain technology to improve settlement efficiency. The framework for risk control and regulation re

#比特币价格走势 Seeing the RSI drop to its lowest level in nearly three years, many people are starting to get restless. But I want to remind everyone that extreme overselling can indeed present a rebound opportunity—this logic itself is sound—just make sure to understand that a rebound ≠ bottom, and short-term reactions ≠ long-term trends.
Bitcoin has fallen from 126,000 to 80,500, a 36% decline that is certainly enough to cause concern. Looking at these numbers, it's easy to feel the impulse to "buy the dip." But a truly prudent approach is to ask yourself a few questions first: Have I already res

#比特币价格走势 Recently, on-chain data shows that short-term holders are already selling at a loss, and the RSI indicator has also hit its lowest point in nearly three years. At such times, it’s often not the market itself that’s tested, but our mindset.
I remember a friend who experienced a similar extreme oversold condition at the beginning of 2023. He was not swept up in panic but stuck to his position management plan—cut losses where needed, hold firm where necessary. Looking back now, that bottom area indeed turned out to be a good opportunity for deployment.
The key is to understand that shor

#比特币技术分析 Seeing the recent analysis about RSI being extremely oversold, I want to share an observation with everyone.
Technical indicators are indeed speaking—BTC weekly RSI has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years, and the ratio of ETH to the Nasdaq has also touched historical lows. From a data perspective, all these point to one signal: the market may have reached an extreme sentiment.
But I want to emphasize that oversold indicators ≠ an immediate buy signal. These signals only tell us that the possibility of a short-term rebound is increasing, and market sentiment has become o

#美联储降息 The new Federal Reserve chairperson is about to be announced, and market expectations for rate cuts are heating up again. Looking at these news, I am reminded of a recent conversation with friends—many are excitedly discussing "Rate cuts are coming, should we increase our holdings?"
But what I want to say is that policy shifts are often the moments when we need to stay the most calm. The expectation of rate cuts has already been reflected in the market, and the real test is: how will the market react when these expectations are finally realized? Historical experience tells us that ther