#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the recent discussions about the technical aspects of BTC and ETH, I want to share a fundamental principle that long-term investors need to uphold.

RSI severely oversold, clear bottom signals—these words sound very tempting and are indeed supported by data. But I need to remind everyone that the bottom of a technical chart is often the most emotionally volatile point. Every major dip is followed by voices claiming "mean reversion, inevitable"—and sometimes these are validated, but more often, we see wave after wave of "bottoms."

Inflation and changes in monetary policy do influence asset allocation logic. Quantitative easing, cash stimulation—these can alter expectations. But this precisely highlights that during periods of changing policy expectations, we need to exercise restraint even more. Don't suddenly increase your position just because there's a "50% to 100% upside," and don't let oversold signals dictate your decisions.

My simple advice: review whether your current portfolio still aligns with your risk tolerance, rather than being led by technical signals. If your asset allocation is reasonable, modestly increasing your holdings in the bottom range can be considered. But only if you can withstand a further 20%, 30%, or even more decline. A long-term mindset isn't about shouting slogans; it's about having the resilience to hold steady amid uncertainty.