#预测市场 I just saw someone on Twitter confidently say that something "will definitely happen," and I was so scared I broke out in a cold sweat😅 But then I found something interesting—the prediction market!

Vitalik recently wrote that prediction markets are like a "cure" for social media, and this analogy is so fitting! For example, when Elon Musk said a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," it sounded terrifying, but the prediction market on Polymarket only assigns a 3% probability to that. This contrast instantly calmed me down😌

The key is—there are real stakes involved in prediction markets! Telling the truth can make money, lying can cost you, and this kind of "economic punishment" is so clever. Compared to the reckless and panic-inducing statements on social media, prediction markets better reflect the true probabilities.

Now I’m really curious—how exactly do these prediction markets operate? How much capital is needed to participate? Are they particularly complicated? It feels like I’ve found a tool that can help me make more rational judgments💡