#加密资产投资策略 Seeing Arthur Hayes's report, my first reaction wasn't bullish forecast numbers, but rather the detail that he transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital—this detail is worth pondering.

Having been in the industry for so many years, I’ve learned a simple truth: people who tell good stories often speak the truth through their actions. RMP is equivalent to a new version of QE, liquidity is being released, Bitcoin returning to 124,000 or even pushing to 2 million—sounds very exciting, but the question is, if you're so confident, why sell during the rebound?

It's not that his logic is flawed, but you must understand that macro narratives are always the easiest to exaggerate. I've seen too many people hit by beautiful stories, only to be deeply trapped in the pullback after a "phase of high sentiment." The high point in March next year is tempting, but will there be months of painful decline before that? Can the bottom truly hold at 124,000? Who dares to guarantee it?

The key is, in this cycle, don’t be blinded by FOMO. RMP policies may indeed boost liquidity, but that doesn’t mean you should buy in at any price. Learning to wait, recognizing the points where the big players are unloading in the story, is far more important than chasing the elusive 2 million. Those who live long are always those who know when to hide.