#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's remarks made me realize how many times I've been cut by social media over the years. Do you remember those panic-driven calls? "This coin will definitely reach $100" or "This project is absolutely the next Ethereum"—spoken with conviction, but no one is responsible once you turn around.

Now I understand the logic behind prediction markets: only real money can make people tell the truth. On Polymarket, the probability of a UK civil war is only 3%, yet some big V influencers' tweets can create nationwide panic. The difference is here—one is risking money, the other just attracts attention.

Anyone who has experienced several market cycles knows that retail investors are most easily driven by emotions. They sell in fear of bad news, chase after good news, and end up realizing their judgments are mostly the opposite. Prediction markets use economic incentives to force stop-losses on this madness. You have to put your money where your mouth is to prove your opinion is worth something.

Now my habit is, whenever I see extreme statements online, I check related prediction market data. If the true probability is so different from public opinion, it's probably driven by emotions. This verification costs very little but can save me many times from getting cut.

The key to surviving long on-chain is to stay alert—alert to emotions, irresponsible comments, and your own greed. Tools like Polymarket are not for quick profits, but to remind you: the truth is often not so extreme.