#比特币机构采用与储备 Galaxy's research report happens to hit on my recent point of thinking—the relationship between institutional adoption and market maturity.

Looking at options market pricing, by the end of 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to 50,000 or rising to 250,000 is almost the same. This extremely wide price range reflects not bearishness, but real uncertainty. But the key is not how it moves in the short term, rather the underlying logic is changing: in the volatility smile curve, the pricing of put options has surpassed that of call options, indicating that institutional investors' risk management mindset has already permeated.

From a copy-trading perspective, what does this mean? It means that those traders who rely on extreme volatility to make a living are being squeezed, but those who understand risk layering and can precisely cut losses in uncertainty are more likely to stand out. The few traders I’ve been observing recently have evolved their strategies from pure trend following to "institutional thinking"—they actively adjust their position allocations and switch styles based on changes in volatility structure.

The large-scale introduction of covered call selling and income-generating strategies is indeed structurally reducing volatility. The logic of working with such traders is clear: risk is more controllable, drawdowns are relatively smooth, making them suitable for players who want to follow steadily over the long term. But if your risk appetite is higher, you still need to find traders who can accurately grasp the rhythm even in low-volatility environments.

Institutional access expansion + loose monetary policy + non-USD hedging demand form a solid triangle. Whether the 2027 target of 250,000 is believable or not depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon, but what is certain is that Bitcoin’s asset properties are being reshaped, and copy-trading strategies must also upgrade accordingly.