Seeing Kalshi's research report, I have to admit it's quite interesting. Prediction markets outperform Wall Street consensus on inflation forecasts, with an average error 40% lower and up to 67% in extreme cases—what does this data tell us?

It shows that the "collective wisdom" of the trading markets really has some skill. Traders who bet real money are naturally motivated to make accurate predictions, unlike economists who can hide behind theories. This actually gives me some inspiration for my copy trading strategy—when choosing experts, I pay more attention to those who can stay steady during high uncertainty. Their decision-making logic often reflects this kind of "market collective intelligence."

But it also reminds me of one thing: accurate predictions don't equal profitable trading. Polymarket and Kalshi's strengths lie in information integration, but when it comes to trade execution, risk management, and psychological battles, it's a different story. When copying trades, you can't be blinded by impressive prediction records—you also need to look at their stop-loss setups and position management. The most deceptive traders are often those who predict correctly but still end up losing money.

This report actually gave me an idea: before high volatility hits, it might be wise to pay more attention to experts with a background in prediction markets, as they tend to be more sensitive to changes.