#BTC市场分析 After reviewing Murphy's on-chain data analysis, I have to say that the recent changes in the chip structure are indeed worth paying attention to.

Since the October crash, the scale of long-term holders' distribution has been "epic"—the chips with a cost basis of 60,000-70,000 USD are being sold off most aggressively. Most of these people likely accumulated their positions before the election, and now that profits are being pulled back, they are rushing to exit. I can understand, after all, the four-year cycle, quantum threats, and macro uncertainties—these noises can indeed shake investor sentiment.

But there's a key piece of information that cannot be ignored: in the 80,000-90,000 USD range, 2.536 million BTC have already accumulated, an increase of 1.874 million compared to October. This is already the strongest support zone. In other words, the "gap zone" between 70,000-80,000 USD only has 190,000 BTC left, extremely thin—if prices truly fall to that level, it could instead trigger a rapid influx of liquidity.

From a follow-trade perspective, this is a situation where opportunities and traps coexist. The strategies of several top traders I observe differ: some aggressively buy the dip in batches, some are conservative and hold coins in the 80,000-90,000 USD range to wait and see, while others simply reduce positions and wait for confirmation. The key is to clearly understand your risk appetite and position cycle, and not to be hijacked by the panic emotions caused by long-term distribution.

Currently, the chips are roughly balanced between buyers and sellers. The direction chosen at this position may determine the strength of the next wave of the market. It’s worth closely monitoring.