Yesterday, the market hovered around the $90,000 mark again, and beneath the seemingly calm chart, there are turbulent undercurrents. But what truly stirs the market are not the candlesticks themselves, but the voices from two power centers—Washington and California. Former President Trump's strong stance on cryptocurrencies, combined with Federal Reserve officials' statements on policy direction, are outlining two acts of this grand drama in 2026: one heralding the arrival of long-term institutional benefits, and the other testing short-term liquidity.

**The Policy Favor Is Truly Coming**

Trump's position on cryptocurrencies has always been clear—building compliant channels and creating a "mainstream financial highway." This is not just talk. The GENIUS Act has already been enacted in the previous administration, establishing a real legal framework for blockchain and digital assets. Institutional investors have been waiting for this, and now the door is open.

Even more significant is the discussion around strategic reserves. Using Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve is gradually taking shape. Once this progresses, Bitcoin's identity will shift from a "high-risk speculative asset" to a "strategic asset." What does this transformation mean? It means the valuation logic will be completely rewritten.

Another detail that is easily overlooked—pension accounts opening the door to crypto. If mainstream U.S. pension plans like 401(k) allow allocations to digital assets, it would truly open the floodgates for trillions of dollars. This is the most direct channel flowing into the crypto market.

**Short-term Uncertainties Are Also Present**

But don’t be blinded by the long-term prospects. Signals from the Federal Reserve are also crucial. Will a shift in policy stance affect liquidity? This is where the market is most tense. The long-term institutional benefits and the short-term cash flow pressures are now competing forces.

The recent movement of BTC is essentially a balancing act between these two forces. It appears calm on the surface, but in reality, it’s the calm before the storm.