2026-01-08 14:33:42

Turn off the market display, let's talk about something straightforward.

Today, no emotional discussion, no analysis of the whales' movements, just sitting down to break down the most basic calculations—let's see if the market is truly awake.

Look at the current situation of these three projects in the storage sector:

Filecoin (FIL). This veteran project has been controversial for its technology, but its market cap is still there—tens of billions of dollars. Arweave (AR). Focused on the concept of permanent storage, with a market cap in the billions. And then there's Walrus ($WAL), the only official storage protocol in the Sui ecosystem, with cutting-edge technical solutions, solid architecture design, sitting on the shoulders of the strongest public chain, Sui.

What about its market cap? Less than two billion dollars.

Wait, let's do the math. A project with the strongest technical capability, the most solid background, and the best ecosystem position, yet its market cap is only one-tenth, or even one-tenth of its predecessor. Is this scientific? Reasonable?

Honestly, this isn't a question of reasonableness. This is the market daydreaming.

To use a more intuitive analogy: Nokia feature phones (FIL) valued at 10 billion. The first-generation iPhone (AR) valued at 5 billion. So how much should the latest iPhone 16 Pro ($WAL) be worth? According to this logic, it should be worth 500 million?

This is simply unrealistic. This is a blatant pricing error.

And these kinds of errors have a characteristic—eventually, they will be corrected. Especially when the error is so obvious that you can count it with your toes, the correction force often exceeds expectations.

Why do these errors occur? In the early stages of a bull market, capital choices are very crude. Most people only recognize old storage concepts like FIL and AR, and have no interest in delving into new innovations. Capital is like a herd, flocking en masse to well-known leading projects, ignoring better emerging forces.

But when the market begins to become rational, and more people realize the technological gap and ecological value, this logical dislocation will inevitably reverse.

FIL4,14%

AR5,24%

WAL-2,6%

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CryptoMom

· 01-09 11:01

Wow, the WAL multiplier is way too outrageous, are you sure it's not calculated incorrectly? Really, this is absurd. The market is still relying on old capital. Sui ecosystem's most solid storage solution, technically surpassing predecessors, yet its market cap is the lowest? Is this a reverse investment opportunity... I don't want to hear about fundamentals anymore, just look at the multiplier potential. WAL at this position is indeed awkward. The herd mentality is so disgusting, there are tons of people blindly speculating on FIL, but few truly understand the technology. Just wait, it will eventually correct itself, sooner or later. Bull markets are like this, the best projects tend to surge the most in the end. FIL is already worth hundreds of millions, so why is WAL still hovering around 200 million? That's unreasonable. This logical mismatch will eventually flip, it just depends on who reacts faster.

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defi_detective

· 01-08 15:03

This logic indeed holds up; WAL is seriously undervalued. --- Wait, is Sui really that strong? It still feels like the ecosystem is quite quiet. --- That Nokia analogy was excellent, but the problem is retail investors can't tell who is the iPhone and who is Nokia. --- It sounds good, but when it really happens, it’s not in our hands. --- The pile of old, rotten debts in FIL still drags it down today. Why is it still so high? --- Here's the question: when will the market become rational? If we wait any longer, it will be a bear market. --- It makes sense but is too idealistic; capital flow has never followed logic. --- WAL is indeed obscure, but those that are obscure are often the ones that get cut. --- In a bull market, it all depends on who tells the best story. Technology gap? People simply don't care. --- This kind of undervaluation has only two outcomes: either a big surge or zero; there’s no middle ground.

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MEVictim

· 01-08 15:03

Oh, there's really no problem. WAL's valuation is indeed extremely stubborn, and the strong technology ecosystem is actually being discarded as trash. Even fools can see that FIL's technology should have been phased out long ago, so why does its market cap still far surpass others? If WAL really takes off, the multiple potential... just thinking about it is outrageous. It's a gamble on when the market will wake up. Funds are like this, they buy whatever they recognize, completely ignoring fundamentals, it's ironic. Waiting to see how it reverses later; it feels right in front of us. Everyone rushes after the old giants, ignoring new things. This market is always so magical. Now is a good time for WAL to make a move; it all depends on whether Sui can deliver.

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TokenEconomist

· 01-08 15:02

actually, the valuation arbitrage here is textbook herding behavior ceteris paribus... FIL's incumbency premium hasn't justified itself technically in years, yet WAL sits at a fraction of the price despite superior architecture. classic case of where market cap ≠ fundamental value. when this rebalances—and it will—could be violent.

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TokenStorm

· 01-08 14:53

Oh wait, I need to look at the WAL logic from the opposite perspective. Strong technology ≠ high valuation, this is the biggest trap in a bull market. The herd effect does exist, but a reversal also requires trigger conditions. Currently, the funds haven't recognized it yet. Honestly, I've heard countless times the argument that "pricing errors will inevitably correct," and each time it's just an illusion of arbitrage opportunity. FIL has lasted until today for a reason—have you considered the ecosystem maturity and safety premium? No matter how advanced the WAL architecture is, it has to prove it can run. On-chain data shows a significant gap in activity levels between these two projects, which isn't just a matter of market ignorance. But I can't quite explain why I still want to go all-in on WAL... this aligns with my usual risk management style. The safest place in the storm is at the center; we're all betting we're not the last ones to be harvested. But I’ve seen through it all long ago. This multiple logic is beautiful, but I’m just afraid the market simply won't follow this set of rules. The stories of Nokia and iPhone are easy to tell, but in reality, how many projects die because of the obsession that "being the strongest technically means you should win"? Honestly, if it really is a pricing error, what should early entrants do now? Or should they continue to bet that the market will wake up?

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TommyTeacher

· 01-08 14:35

Damn, this logic is easily shattered. FIL with this crappy technology is still worth billions, while WAL is left idle. The market is really living in a dream. The market will eventually wake up, and it will be fun when that day comes. Wait, is Sui really that strong? Why is the ecosystem token still so weak? This is the information gap, brother. The big players will have to discover it slowly. Calling it a blatant mispricing is harsh, but I've been watching for two months and haven't seen any reversal.

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