#比特币期权交割 The $28 billion annual options settlement has just concluded, and the market's true intentions are beginning to surface. 267,000 BTC options with a Put/Call ratio of only 0.35—what does this data indicate? Major players are betting on a rise, but they are betting on out-of-the-money calls— in other words, they are betting on an outsized rally.

What truly warrants attention is the position structure after settlement. The March quarterly options have become the new main focus, accounting for over 30% of total positions, still dominated by out-of-the-money calls. This signal is clear: the market is pricing in a rebound expectation, but participants are not highly confident about this rebound.

From a follow-trader perspective, in this environment, it is necessary to choose traders more cautiously. Seller strategies tend to perform better in a sluggish Q4, but the abundance of out-of-the-money calls indicates risk concentration at certain key price levels. If you are following aggressive long players, pay special attention to their stop-loss settings. The market is not that simple; prepare for diversified positions and avoid being blinded by the euphoria of a rebound.

Real trading experience shows that complex option structures often indicate that the market is about to make a choice. Observe the next two weeks' movements to see if the pricing logic of March options holds up.