As of 2026/1/20 $SOL , currently in a clear downtrend, following the trend to go short is the main approach.

Main basis:
1. Price structure: Higher highs are decreasing (148.74 -> 146.60 -> 144.55 -> 134.63), and lower lows are continuously making new lows (143.00 -> 140.90 -> 137.74 -> 128.36).
2. Moving average system: EMA shows a bearish alignment, and prices are consistently trading below all major moving averages.
3. Momentum indicators: MACD is operating below the zero line, with negative histogram bars, indicating strong downward momentum.
4. Volume confirmation: Key downward candlestick accompanied by increased volume, validating the trend's effectiveness.

Key level analysis:

Resistance levels (need to break through to ease the downtrend):
1. Recent strong resistance: $134.00 - $135.00 area. This is the first resistance zone after a breakdown, also the lower boundary of a previous trading congestion zone.
2. Critical resistance: $138.00 - $140.00 area. This is the lower boundary of a previous wide-range consolidation and multiple support levels, which has now turned into a strong resistance after the price broke below. Any rebound to this area may encounter strong selling pressure.
3. Trend reversal confirmation resistance: $145.00 - $148.00 area. The price needs to re-establish above this previous high zone to fundamentally reverse the downtrend.

Support levels (possible rebound or consolidation points):
1. Current support: $128.00 - $130.00 area. This is the recent low touched during the current decline, with some psychological and technical support. A break below this could open up larger downside space.
2. Potential support: $125.00 (psychological level) and below. Longer-term charts are needed for confirmation, but integer levels are often points of battle between bulls and bears.

Trading suggestions:

SOL has established a downtrend on the 4-hour chart. All major technical indicators point to bearishness. Although RSI series indicators have entered oversold territory, suggesting a possible technical rebound, unless clear reversal signals appear (such as bottoming structures, volume breakout above key resistance, MACD bullish divergence, etc.), the main idea remains to follow the trend and stay short.

Bearish scenario: If the price rebounds to the $134-$135 or $138-$140 resistance zones and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows, indicator divergence), it could be an opportunity to short at a higher level.
Bullish/rebound scenario: If the price finds support around $128-$130 and shows strong volume-driven rebound, and can continuously break through the above resistance levels, the downtrend may shift to consolidation or require reassessment. Currently, this possibility is relatively low.
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